Closing spread
MIN -7.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.079EPA / play-0.154
- 45.9%Success rate39.4%
- +0.164EPA / dropback-0.108
- -0.044EPA / rush-0.236
- 9.7%Explosive rate7.0%
- 46.9%Third-down rate37.2%
- 62.7%Red-zone TD rate46.3%
- 1.96Points / drive0.93
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.4%
- -0.008EPA / play allowed+0.075
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 10–4 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.3 points. ARI are 5-7-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 13:21 | 9 | 72 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 8:51 | 13 | 99 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| MIN | Q1 0:51 | 13 | 64 | Missed field goal | 0–3 |
| ARI | Q2 9:58 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 0–3 |
| MIN | Q2 6:41 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 0–3 |
| ARI | Q2 4:21 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 0–3 |
| MIN | Q2 1:31 | 3 | 2 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| ARI | Q2 0:42 | 3 | 5 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| MIN | Q2 0:19 | 2 | 38 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–6 |
| ARI | Q3 13:21 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–6 |
| MIN | Q3 11:47 | 8 | 72 | Touchdown | 7–6 |
| ARI | Q3 7:08 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 7–6 |
| MIN | Q3 5:26 | 6 | 10 | Punt | 7–6 |
| ARI | Q3 1:55 | 3 | -10 | Punt | 7–6 |
| MIN | Q4 14:50 | 11 | 57 | Touchdown | 14–6 |
| ARI | Q4 8:54 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 14–6 |
| MIN | Q4 8:41 | 3 | 6 | Field goal | 17–6 |
| ARI | Q4 6:48 | 15 | 59 | Touchdown | 17–12 |
| MIN | Q4 1:54 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 17–12 |
| ARI | Q4 1:54 | 7 | 31 | Touchdown | 17–18 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 18/28 | 197 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bennett | 12 | 63 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 7 | 40 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Onterrio Smith | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 7 | 12 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Kelly Campbell | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 20/33 | 224 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Marcel Shipp | 9 | 17 | 1.9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
4.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.1%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.42
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.69
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.75