2018 · Week 6

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Josh Rosen

17·27

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -10

Total

43.5

Model margin

+5.7est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

3.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapVikings
  • -0.240EPA / play-0.075
  • 35.6%Success rate43.2%
  • -0.267EPA / dropback-0.011
  • -0.193EPA / rush-0.203
  • 6.0%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -7.13CPOE+2.40
  • 29.0%Third-down rate36.2%
  • 63.9%Red-zone TD rate67.3%
  • 0.92Points / drive1.57
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 10–4 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.3 points. MIN are 7-5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13ARI @ MIN22–23MIN
2022 · W8ARI @ MIN26–34MIN
2021 · W2MIN @ ARI33–34ARI
2016 · W11ARI @ MIN24–30MIN
2015 · W14MIN @ ARI20–23ARI
2012 · W7ARI @ MIN14–21MIN
2011 · W5ARI @ MIN10–34MIN
2010 · W9ARI @ MIN24–27MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–MIN
ARIQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
MINQ1 13:33626Turnover on downs0–0
ARIQ1 11:05649Field goal3–0
MINQ1 8:18680Touchdown3–7
ARIQ1 5:3315Turnover3–7
MINQ1 5:26517Field goal3–10
ARIQ1 2:033-4Punt3–10
MINQ1 0:1239Turnover3–10
ARIQ2 14:19546Turnover on downs3–10
MINQ2 12:0339Punt3–10
ARIQ2 9:3131Punt3–10
MINQ2 8:02726Opp touchdown10–10
MINQ2 4:13629Punt10–10
ARIQ2 1:4238Punt10–10
MINQ2 1:20541Field goal10–13
ARIQ2 0:0700End of half10–13
MINQ3 15:001075Touchdown10–20
ARIQ3 10:063-5Punt10–20
MINQ3 7:48343Touchdown10–27
ARIQ3 6:37726Turnover10–27
MINQ3 3:0536Punt10–27
ARIQ3 1:291057Turnover on downs10–27
MINQ4 12:063-1Punt10–27
ARIQ4 9:45867Touchdown17–27
MINQ4 6:5736Punt17–27
ARIQ4 5:25611Punt17–27
MINQ4 3:14646End of half17–27

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Rosen21/3124001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Johnson18543.01
Chase Edmonds144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Kirk67770
Ricky Seals-Jones56690
Larry Fitzgerald58390
Jermaine Gresham11260
David Johnson25150
J.J. Nelson1290
Chad Williams1250

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins24/3423311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Latavius Murray241556.51
Mike Boone12020.00
Kirk Cousins4143.51
Stefon Diggs199.00
Roc Thomas1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen11131231
Laquon Treadwell44380
Kyle Rudolph45370
Stefon Diggs34330
Latavius Murray1230
Aldrick Robinson0100
Kirk Cousins11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

3.31%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.1%

Expected total

41.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.95
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.69