Closing spread
MIN -10
Total
43.5
Model margin
+5.7est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.240EPA / play-0.075
- 35.6%Success rate43.2%
- -0.267EPA / dropback-0.011
- -0.193EPA / rush-0.203
- 6.0%Explosive rate8.0%
- -7.13CPOE+2.40
- 29.0%Third-down rate36.2%
- 63.9%Red-zone TD rate67.3%
- 0.92Points / drive1.57
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 10–4 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.3 points. MIN are 7-5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Rosen | 21/31 | 240 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 18 | 54 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Chase Edmonds | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 6 | 7 | 77 | 0 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 5 | 6 | 69 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 5 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Chad Williams | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 24/34 | 233 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 24 | 155 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Mike Boone | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Roc Thomas | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 11 | 13 | 123 | 1 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 4 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
3.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.1%
Expected total
41.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.95
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.69