Closing spread
MIN -3.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+1.7est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.067EPA / play+0.038
- 47.3%Success rate46.3%
- +0.126EPA / dropback+0.135
- -0.023EPA / rush-0.119
- 10.0%Explosive rate9.6%
- +2.11CPOE+4.00
- 43.0%Third-down rate39.7%
- 60.3%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
- 2.31Points / drive2.09
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 10–4 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.3 points. MIN are 7-5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 31/45 | 260 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 17 | 68 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 7 | 48 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Trey Benson | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Emari Demercado | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride | 12 | 12 | 96 | 0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 5 | 12 | 60 | 1 |
| Michael Wilson | 5 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Elijah Higgins | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| James Conner | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Tip Reiman | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Emari Demercado | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 21/31 | 235 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Ty Chandler | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 7 | 9 | 99 | 0 |
| Jordan Addison | 4 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 3 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 2 | 2 | 22 | 1 |
| Jalen Nailor | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 3 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.7%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.03
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.74