2024 · Week 13

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

22·23

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Sam Darnold

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -3.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+1.7est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapVikings
  • +0.067EPA / play+0.038
  • 47.3%Success rate46.3%
  • +0.126EPA / dropback+0.135
  • -0.023EPA / rush-0.119
  • 10.0%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +2.11CPOE+4.00
  • 43.0%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 60.3%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
  • 2.31Points / drive2.09
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 10–4 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.3 points. MIN are 7-5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W8ARI @ MIN26–34MIN
2021 · W2MIN @ ARI33–34ARI
2018 · W6ARI @ MIN17–27MIN
2016 · W11ARI @ MIN24–30MIN
2015 · W14MIN @ ARI20–23ARI
2012 · W7ARI @ MIN14–21MIN
2011 · W5ARI @ MIN10–34MIN
2010 · W9ARI @ MIN24–27MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–MIN
ARIQ1 15:001057Field goal3–0
MINQ1 9:02840Field goal3–3
ARIQ1 4:42619Punt3–3
MINQ1 1:2415Turnover3–3
ARIQ1 1:1542Missed field goal3–3
MINQ2 14:183-3Punt3–3
ARIQ2 12:101191Field goal6–3
MINQ2 6:01833Field goal6–6
ARIQ2 1:121059Field goal9–6
MINQ3 15:00617Missed field goal9–6
ARIQ3 13:281032Field goal12–6
MINQ3 8:333-5Punt12–6
ARIQ3 6:59745Touchdown19–6
MINQ3 4:37670Touchdown19–13
ARIQ3 1:17415Turnover19–13
MINQ4 14:47855Field goal19–16
ARIQ4 11:081586Field goal22–16
MINQ4 3:20962Touchdown22–23
ARIQ4 1:1340Turnover22–23
MINQ4 0:3300End of half22–23

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray31/4526012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner17684.00
Kyler Murray7486.90
Trey Benson3206.70
Emari Demercado3124.00
Greg Dortch166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Trey McBride1212960
Marvin Harrison Jr.512601
Michael Wilson57550
Elijah Higgins22230
James Conner34130
Tip Reiman1190
Emari Demercado1230
Greg Dortch2310

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold21/3123520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones5224.40
Sam Darnold4225.50
Cam Akers4225.50
Ty Chandler221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson79990
Jordan Addison46540
T.J. Hockenson36280
Johnny Mundt22221
Jalen Nailor12180
Brandon Powell1180
Aaron Jones3461

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.7%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.03
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.74