2022 · Week 8

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

26·34

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -4

Total

48.5

Model margin

+4.5est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

2.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapVikings
  • -0.081EPA / play+0.004
  • 40.7%Success rate45.8%
  • -0.079EPA / dropback+0.070
  • -0.084EPA / rush-0.130
  • 6.3%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -1.70CPOE+1.66
  • 35.4%Third-down rate40.7%
  • 59.7%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
  • 1.60Points / drive2.04
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 10–4 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.3 points. MIN are 7-5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13ARI @ MIN22–23MIN
2021 · W2MIN @ ARI33–34ARI
2018 · W6ARI @ MIN17–27MIN
2016 · W11ARI @ MIN24–30MIN
2015 · W14MIN @ ARI20–23ARI
2012 · W7ARI @ MIN14–21MIN
2011 · W5ARI @ MIN10–34MIN
2010 · W9ARI @ MIN24–27MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–MIN
MINQ1 15:001070Touchdown0–7
ARIQ1 10:12834Field goal3–7
MINQ1 6:04847Turnover on downs3–7
ARIQ1 3:0957Punt3–7
MINQ2 14:541081Touchdown3–14
ARIQ2 9:54726Punt3–14
MINQ2 5:45519Punt3–14
ARIQ2 3:391072Touchdown10–14
MINQ2 0:47632Missed field goal10–14
ARIQ3 15:0067Punt10–14
MINQ3 12:093-12Punt10–14
ARIQ3 11:15552Touchdown17–14
MINQ3 9:01875Touchdown17–21
ARIQ3 5:4710Turnover17–21
MINQ3 5:27427Touchdown17–28
ARIQ3 4:07470Touchdown23–28
MINQ3 2:273-1Turnover23–28
ARIQ3 0:5978Field goal26–28
MINQ4 12:32415Punt26–28
MINQ4 10:34425Touchdown26–34
ARIQ4 8:36531Turnover26–34
MINQ4 6:433-4Punt26–34
ARIQ4 4:31928Turnover on downs26–34
MINQ4 2:3937Punt26–34
ARIQ4 1:52940End of half26–34

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray31/4432632

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyler Murray6366.00
Eno Benjamin9222.40
Rondale Moore2126.00
Darrel Williams581.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins12131591
Rondale Moore78921
Zach Ertz45341
Eno Benjamin47230
Greg Dortch23120
Darrel Williams2360
A.J. Green0100
Robbie Chosen0300

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins24/3623220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook201115.51
Alexander Mattison5408.01
Kirk Cousins4225.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson68980
Adam Thielen67670
Dalvin Cook56300
Irv Smith44280
K.J. Osborn2581
Johnny Mundt1111

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.1%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.50
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.32
  • Expected margin+4.52