Closing spread
MIN -4
Total
48.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.081EPA / play+0.004
- 40.7%Success rate45.8%
- -0.079EPA / dropback+0.070
- -0.084EPA / rush-0.130
- 6.3%Explosive rate8.0%
- -1.70CPOE+1.66
- 35.4%Third-down rate40.7%
- 59.7%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
- 1.60Points / drive2.04
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 10–4 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.3 points. MIN are 7-5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 31/44 | 326 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 6 | 36 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Eno Benjamin | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Rondale Moore | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 12 | 13 | 159 | 1 |
| Rondale Moore | 7 | 8 | 92 | 1 |
| Zach Ertz | 4 | 5 | 34 | 1 |
| Eno Benjamin | 4 | 7 | 23 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 24/36 | 232 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 20 | 111 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Alexander Mattison | 5 | 40 | 8.0 | 1 |
| Kirk Cousins | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 6 | 8 | 98 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 6 | 7 | 67 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 5 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Irv Smith | 4 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| K.J. Osborn | 2 | 5 | 8 | 1 |
| Johnny Mundt | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.1%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.50
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.32
- Expected margin+4.52