Closing spread
MIN -3.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.077EPA / play-0.054
- 41.4%Success rate39.2%
- -0.076EPA / dropback-0.073
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.026
- 7.8%Explosive rate10.1%
- -5.82CPOE-5.80
- 32.0%Third-down rate38.8%
- 56.6%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
- 1.38Points / drive1.60
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 10–4 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.3 points. MIN are 7-5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kolb | 21/42 | 232 | 0 | 2 |
| Richard Bartel | 2/6 | 22 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Wells | 20 | 60 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Kevin Kolb | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Alfonso Smith | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Early Doucet | 8 | 17 | 92 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 4 | 8 | 66 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 3 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 5 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Rob Housler | 3 | 8 | 25 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| DeMarco Sampson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 10/21 | 169 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 29 | 122 | 4.2 | 3 |
| Lorenzo Booker | 1 | 25 | 25.0 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Aromashodu | 2 | 5 | 81 | 0 |
| Michael Jenkins | 4 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Booker | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 1 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.8%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.48
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.61
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.40