2011 · Week 5

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kevin Kolb

10·34

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Donovan McNabb

Mall of America Field · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -3.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+1.4est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapVikings
  • -0.077EPA / play-0.054
  • 41.4%Success rate39.2%
  • -0.076EPA / dropback-0.073
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.026
  • 7.8%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -5.82CPOE-5.80
  • 32.0%Third-down rate38.8%
  • 56.6%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
  • 1.38Points / drive1.60
  • 3.1%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 10–4 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.3 points. MIN are 7-5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13ARI @ MIN22–23MIN
2022 · W8ARI @ MIN26–34MIN
2021 · W2MIN @ ARI33–34ARI
2018 · W6ARI @ MIN17–27MIN
2016 · W11ARI @ MIN24–30MIN
2015 · W14MIN @ ARI20–23ARI
2012 · W7ARI @ MIN14–21MIN
2010 · W9ARI @ MIN24–27MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–MIN
ARIQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
MINQ1 13:5734Punt0–0
ARIQ1 13:0431Punt0–0
MINQ1 10:53418Touchdown0–7
ARIQ1 9:1810Turnover0–13
MINQ1 9:02124Touchdown0–14
ARIQ1 8:5525Turnover0–14
MINQ1 8:15525Touchdown0–21
ARIQ1 6:2539Punt0–21
MINQ1 4:42537Touchdown0–28
ARIQ1 2:41532Punt0–28
MINQ2 14:5232Punt0–28
ARIQ2 13:54725Field goal3–28
MINQ2 10:29413Punt3–28
ARIQ2 8:451645Punt3–28
MINQ2 1:53639End of half3–28
MINQ3 15:00544Turnover3–28
ARIQ3 12:04959Touchdown10–28
MINQ3 8:23986Field goal10–31
ARIQ3 3:35832Turnover on downs10–31
MINQ4 15:00621Missed field goal10–31
ARIQ4 12:181247Turnover on downs10–31
MINQ4 8:5444Punt10–31
ARIQ4 7:0420Turnover10–31
MINQ4 6:42617Field goal10–34
ARIQ4 2:09830Turnover10–34
MINQ4 1:0900End of half10–34

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kevin Kolb21/4223202
Richard Bartel2/62201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Wells20603.01
Kevin Kolb2105.00
LaRod Stephens-Howling155.00
Alfonso Smith122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Early Doucet817920
Larry Fitzgerald48660
Andre Roberts36360
Jeff King56350
Rob Housler38250
Chris Wells0100
DeMarco Sampson0200

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb10/2116900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson291224.23
Lorenzo Booker12525.00
Percy Harvin11212.00
Toby Gerhart294.50
Donovan McNabb441.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Devin Aromashodu25810
Michael Jenkins46320
Lorenzo Booker22250
Visanthe Shiancoe16200
Percy Harvin12110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.8%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.48
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.61
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.40