Closing spread
ARI -4
Total
51
Model margin
+1.7est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.018EPA / play+0.079
- 41.6%Success rate46.8%
- +0.102EPA / dropback+0.154
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.037
- 10.3%Explosive rate9.4%
- +0.82CPOE+4.19
- 36.6%Third-down rate45.2%
- 67.7%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
- 2.13Points / drive2.37
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 10–4 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.3 points. ARI are 5-7-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 22/32 | 244 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 22 | 131 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2 | 35 | 17.5 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.J. Osborn | 5 | 6 | 91 | 1 |
| Justin Jefferson | 6 | 10 | 65 | 1 |
| Adam Thielen | 6 | 7 | 39 | 1 |
| Dalvin Cook | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 29/36 | 400 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Edmonds | 8 | 46 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 1 |
| James Conner | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rondale Moore | 7 | 8 | 114 | 1 |
| Maxx Williams | 7 | 7 | 94 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 3 | 4 | 65 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 4 | 4 | 54 | 1 |
| A.J. Green | 3 | 6 | 44 | 1 |
| Chase Edmonds | 5 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.7%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.03
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.74