2021 · Week 2

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

33·34

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -4

Total

51

Model margin

+1.7est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapCardinals
  • +0.018EPA / play+0.079
  • 41.6%Success rate46.8%
  • +0.102EPA / dropback+0.154
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.037
  • 10.3%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +0.82CPOE+4.19
  • 36.6%Third-down rate45.2%
  • 67.7%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
  • 2.13Points / drive2.37
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 10–4 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.3 points. ARI are 5-7-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13ARI @ MIN22–23MIN
2022 · W8ARI @ MIN26–34MIN
2018 · W6ARI @ MIN17–27MIN
2016 · W11ARI @ MIN24–30MIN
2015 · W14MIN @ ARI20–23ARI
2012 · W7ARI @ MIN14–21MIN
2011 · W5ARI @ MIN10–34MIN
2010 · W9ARI @ MIN24–27MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–ARI
MINQ1 15:00275Touchdown7–0
ARIQ1 14:16312Punt7–0
MINQ1 11:5638Punt7–0
ARIQ1 10:25973Touchdown7–7
MINQ1 5:49975Touchdown14–7
ARIQ1 0:2438Punt14–7
MINQ2 14:14984Touchdown20–7
ARIQ2 8:561085Touchdown20–14
MINQ2 3:1539Punt20–20
ARIQ2 1:46177Touchdown20–21
MINQ2 1:33741Field goal23–21
ARIQ2 0:21222Field goal23–24
ARIQ3 15:0028Opp touchdown30–24
ARIQ3 14:00875Touchdown30–31
MINQ3 9:11427Punt30–31
ARIQ3 6:20544Turnover30–31
MINQ3 3:29920Field goal33–31
ARIQ4 14:1259Punt33–31
MINQ4 10:2338Punt33–31
ARIQ4 8:511060Field goal33–34
MINQ4 4:25414Punt33–34
ARIQ4 2:4531Punt33–34
MINQ4 2:09858Missed field goal33–34

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins22/3224430

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook221316.00
Kirk Cousins23517.50
Alexander Mattison3113.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
K.J. Osborn56911
Justin Jefferson610651
Adam Thielen67391
Dalvin Cook23170
Alexander Mattison11170
Tyler Conklin24150
Ameer Abdullah0100

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray29/3640032

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chase Edmonds8465.80
Kyler Murray5316.21
James Conner8263.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rondale Moore781141
Maxx Williams77940
Christian Kirk34650
DeAndre Hopkins44541
A.J. Green36441
Chase Edmonds55290

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +44.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.7%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.03
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.74