2015 · Week 14

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Teddy Bridgewater

20·23

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

University of Phoenix Stadium · open · grass

Closing spread

ARI -10

Total

46.5

Model margin

+3.5est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapCardinals
  • +0.022EPA / play+0.133
  • 40.7%Success rate47.7%
  • +0.050EPA / dropback+0.260
  • -0.013EPA / rush-0.059
  • 9.6%Explosive rate10.8%
  • +2.87CPOE+4.51
  • 39.2%Third-down rate47.4%
  • 57.3%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
  • 1.94Points / drive2.34
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 10–4 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.3 points. ARI are 5-7-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13ARI @ MIN22–23MIN
2022 · W8ARI @ MIN26–34MIN
2021 · W2MIN @ ARI33–34ARI
2018 · W6ARI @ MIN17–27MIN
2016 · W11ARI @ MIN24–30MIN
2012 · W7ARI @ MIN14–21MIN
2011 · W5ARI @ MIN10–34MIN
2010 · W9ARI @ MIN24–27MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–ARI
ARIQ1 15:001371Field goal0–3
MINQ1 7:23780Touchdown7–3
ARIQ1 3:57580Touchdown7–10
MINQ1 1:4337Punt7–10
ARIQ1 0:21517Punt7–10
MINQ2 13:26974Turnover7–10
ARIQ2 8:11745Punt7–10
MINQ2 3:441049Field goal10–10
ARIQ2 0:0200End of half10–10
MINQ3 15:00723Turnover10–10
ARIQ3 11:20657Touchdown10–17
MINQ3 8:3136Punt10–17
ARIQ3 7:081566Field goal10–20
MINQ4 14:55728Field goal13–20
ARIQ4 12:1039Punt13–20
MINQ4 10:051383Touchdown20–20
ARIQ4 4:551150Field goal20–23
MINQ4 1:23839Turnover20–23
ARIQ4 0:0500End of half20–23

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater25/3633510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson23693.01
Teddy Bridgewater133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kyle Rudolph66670
Jarius Wright56510
Mike Wallace35421
Rhett Ellison11410
MyCole Pruitt22360
Matt Asiata22300
Adrian Peterson11170
Stefon Diggs27120
Jerick McKinnon1180
Adam Thielen1170

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer25/3531020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Johnson19924.80
Carson Palmer331.00
Kerwynn Williams620.30
Stepfan Taylor100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Floyd591021
John Brown45781
Darren Fells34430
Larry Fitzgerald56410
David Johnson57310
Stepfan Taylor1140
Jaron Brown1110
J.J. Nelson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

3.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.4%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.01
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.50