Closing spread
ARI -10
Total
46.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.022EPA / play+0.133
- 40.7%Success rate47.7%
- +0.050EPA / dropback+0.260
- -0.013EPA / rush-0.059
- 9.6%Explosive rate10.8%
- +2.87CPOE+4.51
- 39.2%Third-down rate47.4%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
- 1.94Points / drive2.34
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 10–4 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.3 points. ARI are 5-7-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 25/36 | 335 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 23 | 69 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Rudolph | 6 | 6 | 67 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 5 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 3 | 5 | 42 | 1 |
| Rhett Ellison | 1 | 1 | 41 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 2 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 2 | 7 | 12 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 25/35 | 310 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 19 | 92 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Kerwynn Williams | 6 | 2 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Floyd | 5 | 9 | 102 | 1 |
| John Brown | 4 | 5 | 78 | 1 |
| Darren Fells | 3 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 5 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 5 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
3.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.01
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.50