2016 · Week 11

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

24·30

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Sam Bradford

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -2

Total

39.5

Model margin

+0.3est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapVikings
  • -0.005EPA / play-0.042
  • 45.3%Success rate42.5%
  • +0.043EPA / dropback+0.075
  • -0.093EPA / rush-0.253
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.1%
  • -0.78CPOE+3.80
  • 40.4%Third-down rate38.4%
  • 65.4%Red-zone TD rate49.1%
  • 1.89Points / drive1.65
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 10–4 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.3 points. MIN are 7-5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13ARI @ MIN22–23MIN
2022 · W8ARI @ MIN26–34MIN
2021 · W2MIN @ ARI33–34ARI
2018 · W6ARI @ MIN17–27MIN
2015 · W14MIN @ ARI20–23ARI
2012 · W7ARI @ MIN14–21MIN
2011 · W5ARI @ MIN10–34MIN
2010 · W9ARI @ MIN24–27MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–MIN
ARIQ1 15:00311Punt0–0
MINQ1 13:19654Touchdown0–7
ARIQ1 10:251270Touchdown7–7
MINQ1 4:07510Punt7–7
ARIQ1 1:301178Field goal10–7
MINQ2 10:04646Touchdown10–13
ARIQ2 7:161129Opp touchdown10–20
ARIQ2 3:07775Touchdown17–20
MINQ2 0:504-1End of half17–26
MINQ3 15:0000Touchdown17–27
ARIQ3 14:4733Punt17–27
MINQ3 13:54833Turnover on downs17–27
ARIQ3 9:483-5Punt17–27
MINQ3 7:3649Punt17–27
ARIQ3 5:2010Turnover17–27
MINQ3 5:101036Field goal17–30
ARIQ3 0:04519Punt17–30
MINQ4 13:26816Turnover17–30
ARIQ4 9:10627Touchdown24–30
MINQ4 7:2434Punt24–30
ARIQ4 5:563-8Punt24–30
MINQ4 4:07311Punt24–30
ARIQ4 2:209-9Turnover on downs24–30
MINQ4 0:3700End of half24–30

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer20/3819822

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Johnson221034.71
Andre Ellington5214.20
Carson Palmer11111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald67630
David Johnson711571
Jermaine Gresham22331
Darren Fells11220
Michael Floyd25210
Andre Ellington1220
John Brown0400
J.J. Nelson1500

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Bradford20/2816910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerick McKinnon16442.80
Matt Asiata5204.01
Ronnie Hillman294.50
Sam Bradford1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen55651
Cordarrelle Patterson48530
Stefon Diggs67370
Kyle Rudolph23120
Matt Asiata1170
Rhett Ellison13-20
Jerick McKinnon11-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +22.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.0%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.39
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.35