Closing spread
MIN -2
Total
39.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.005EPA / play-0.042
- 45.3%Success rate42.5%
- +0.043EPA / dropback+0.075
- -0.093EPA / rush-0.253
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.1%
- -0.78CPOE+3.80
- 40.4%Third-down rate38.4%
- 65.4%Red-zone TD rate49.1%
- 1.89Points / drive1.65
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 10–4 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.3 points. MIN are 7-5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 20/38 | 198 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 22 | 103 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Andre Ellington | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 6 | 7 | 63 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 7 | 11 | 57 | 1 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 2 | 2 | 33 | 1 |
| Darren Fells | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 2 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| John Brown | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bradford | 20/28 | 169 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerick McKinnon | 16 | 44 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Sam Bradford | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 5 | 5 | 65 | 1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 4 | 8 | 53 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 6 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.0%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.39
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.35