2012 · Week 7

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB John Skelton

14·21

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Christian Ponder

Mall of America Field · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -7

Total

38.5

Model margin

+5.3est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

5.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapVikings
  • -0.259EPA / play+0.011
  • 35.1%Success rate42.1%
  • -0.267EPA / dropback+0.030
  • -0.242EPA / rush-0.013
  • 6.0%Explosive rate9.7%
  • -8.47CPOE-2.66
  • 25.9%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 36.3%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
  • 0.79Points / drive1.91
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 10–4 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.3 points. MIN are 7-5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13ARI @ MIN22–23MIN
2022 · W8ARI @ MIN26–34MIN
2021 · W2MIN @ ARI33–34ARI
2018 · W6ARI @ MIN17–27MIN
2016 · W11ARI @ MIN24–30MIN
2015 · W14MIN @ ARI20–23ARI
2011 · W5ARI @ MIN10–34MIN
2010 · W9ARI @ MIN24–27MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–MIN
MINQ1 15:0049Punt0–0
ARIQ1 13:0332Punt0–0
MINQ1 11:35659Touchdown0–7
ARIQ1 8:381472Turnover0–7
MINQ1 0:202-3Turnover0–7
ARIQ2 14:51416Touchdown7–7
MINQ2 12:411269Touchdown7–14
ARIQ2 6:26533Punt7–14
MINQ2 3:4939Punt7–14
ARIQ2 1:513-2Punt7–14
MINQ2 0:5038Turnover7–14
ARIQ2 0:0500Missed field goal7–14
ARIQ3 15:0034Opp touchdown7–21
ARIQ3 14:031162Turnover on downs7–21
MINQ3 7:41626Punt7–21
ARIQ3 5:243-1Punt7–21
MINQ3 3:5638Punt7–21
ARIQ3 2:34734Punt7–21
MINQ4 14:0534Punt7–21
ARIQ4 12:38424Punt7–21
MINQ4 10:393-2Punt7–21
ARIQ4 9:19733Turnover on downs7–21
MINQ4 6:1639Punt7–21
ARIQ4 3:56779Touchdown14–21
MINQ4 1:48413End of half14–21

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
John Skelton25/3626211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LaRod Stephens-Howling201045.21
William Powell4133.30
Early Doucet294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Roberts791031
Rob Housler57540
LaRod Stephens-Howling45450
Larry Fitzgerald47290
Early Doucet36190
Michael Floyd1170
William Powell1150

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Christian Ponder8/175812

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson231536.71
Percy Harvin2105.00
Christian Ponder122.00
Toby Gerhart111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Percy Harvin45371
Jerome Simpson1180
Michael Jenkins1270
Adrian Peterson2460
Kyle Rudolph0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

4.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.2%

Expected total

41.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.83
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.32