Closing spread
MIN -7
Total
38.5
Model margin
+5.3est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.259EPA / play+0.011
- 35.1%Success rate42.1%
- -0.267EPA / dropback+0.030
- -0.242EPA / rush-0.013
- 6.0%Explosive rate9.7%
- -8.47CPOE-2.66
- 25.9%Third-down rate37.4%
- 36.3%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
- 0.79Points / drive1.91
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 10–4 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.3 points. MIN are 7-5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Skelton | 25/36 | 262 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 20 | 104 | 5.2 | 1 |
| William Powell | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Early Doucet | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Roberts | 7 | 9 | 103 | 1 |
| Rob Housler | 5 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 4 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 4 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Early Doucet | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| William Powell | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Ponder | 8/17 | 58 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 23 | 153 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Percy Harvin | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Christian Ponder | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percy Harvin | 4 | 5 | 37 | 1 |
| Jerome Simpson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Michael Jenkins | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
4.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.2%
Expected total
41.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.83
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.32