Closing spread
SD -6
Total
46
Model margin
+2.6est.
SD perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 33–22 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. SD are 31-23-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 13:03 | 10 | 62 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 7:44 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 6:21 | 6 | 39 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 2:37 | 5 | 6 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 0:42 | 8 | 12 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LV | Q2 12:24 | 11 | 50 | Turnover on downs | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q2 6:10 | 3 | 6 | Opp touchdown | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 4:39 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LV | Q2 3:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 1:42 | 6 | 76 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| LV | Q2 0:43 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| LAC | Q2 0:24 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 14–14 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 14–14 |
| LV | Q3 11:29 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–14 |
| LAC | Q3 9:35 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 14–14 |
| LV | Q3 6:49 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–14 |
| LAC | Q3 5:14 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 14–14 |
| LV | Q3 3:31 | 7 | 26 | Punt | 14–14 |
| LAC | Q4 14:05 | 6 | 50 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| LV | Q4 11:42 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 14–21 |
| LAC | Q4 10:39 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 14–21 |
| LV | Q4 10:03 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 14–21 |
| LAC | Q4 8:01 | 4 | 40 | Punt | 14–21 |
| LV | Q4 5:52 | 5 | 13 | Turnover | 14–21 |
| LAC | Q4 4:02 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 14–21 |
| LV | Q4 2:32 | 9 | 8 | Turnover on downs | 14–21 |
| LAC | Q4 1:06 | 2 | -2 | End of half | 14–21 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
3.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.2%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.64
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.