2005 · Week 1

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kurt Warner

19·42

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

Giants Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 85°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

NYG -1.5

Total

37.5

Model margin

+2.8est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapGiants
  • -0.074EPA / play+0.041
  • 40.7%Success rate42.4%
  • +0.031EPA / dropback+0.087
  • -0.308EPA / rush-0.026
  • 8.0%Explosive rate9.0%
  • 38.3%Third-down rate39.9%
  • 42.5%Red-zone TD rate57.6%
  • 1.36Points / drive1.87
  • 3.1%Turnover rate2.1%
  • -0.050EPA / play allowed-0.047

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 9–9 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. NYG are 6-12 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4ARI @ NYG24–36NYG
2023 · W2NYG @ ARI31–28NYG
2020 · W14ARI @ NYG26–7ARI
2019 · W7ARI @ NYG27–21ARI
2017 · W16NYG @ ARI0–23ARI
2014 · W2ARI @ NYG25–14ARI
2011 · W4NYG @ ARI31–27NYG
2009 · W7ARI @ NYG24–17ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–NYG
ARIQ1 15:00619Punt0–0
NYGQ1 12:481081Touchdown0–7
ARIQ1 7:5733Punt0–7
NYGQ1 6:21735Punt0–7
ARIQ1 3:321280Field goal3–7
NYGQ2 11:3620Opp touchdown10–7
NYGQ2 11:143-9Punt10–7
ARIQ2 9:081261Field goal13–7
NYGQ2 3:193-1Turnover13–7
ARIQ2 2:253-13Punt13–7
NYGQ2 0:58412Punt13–7
ARIQ2 0:0800End of half13–7
NYGQ3 15:00557Touchdown13–14
ARIQ3 12:1310Turnover13–20
NYGQ3 11:54121Touchdown13–21
ARIQ3 11:48839Touchdown19–21
NYGQ3 7:0400Touchdown19–28
ARIQ3 6:45520Punt19–28
NYGQ3 4:5344Punt19–28
ARIQ3 2:38713Punt19–28
NYGQ4 14:18652Touchdown19–35
ARIQ4 11:2630Punt19–35
NYGQ4 10:5239Punt19–35
ARIQ4 9:2533Opp touchdown19–42
ARIQ4 8:25943Turnover on downs19–42
NYGQ4 5:07417Punt19–42
ARIQ4 3:151052Turnover19–42
NYGQ4 0:4500End of half19–42

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kurt Warner27/4626411
Josh McCown5/105201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kurt Warner3113.70
Marcel Shipp7101.40
J.J. Arrington850.60
James Jackson133.00
Obafemi Ayanbadejo221.00

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning10/2317222

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tiki Barber13624.81
Brandon Jacobs6396.51
Derrick Ward4235.80
Tim Hasselbeck2-3-1.50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.53.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.5%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.20
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.76