Closing spread
NYG -1.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.074EPA / play+0.041
- 40.7%Success rate42.4%
- +0.031EPA / dropback+0.087
- -0.308EPA / rush-0.026
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.0%
- 38.3%Third-down rate39.9%
- 42.5%Red-zone TD rate57.6%
- 1.36Points / drive1.87
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.050EPA / play allowed-0.047
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 9–8 since 1999
Meetings average 40.8 points. NYG are 5-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 27/46 | 264 | 1 | 1 |
| Josh McCown | 5/10 | 52 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Marcel Shipp | 7 | 10 | 1.4 | 0 |
| J.J. Arrington | 8 | 5 | 0.6 | 0 |
| James Jackson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 10/23 | 172 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 13 | 62 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 6 | 39 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Derrick Ward | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Tim Hasselbeck | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.20
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.76