Closing spread
CIN -3.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
-0.0est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.102EPA / play-0.131
- 48.2%Success rate39.5%
- +0.159EPA / dropback-0.097
- +0.023EPA / rush-0.183
- 9.1%Explosive rate7.4%
- 43.8%Third-down rate32.4%
- 60.3%Red-zone TD rate38.1%
- 2.30Points / drive1.22
- 1.9%Turnover rate3.1%
- +0.010EPA / play allowed-0.004
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CIN–CLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 33 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 12:34 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q1 10:56 | 11 | 59 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| CIN | Q1 4:37 | 12 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| CLE | Q2 13:44 | 3 | 9 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| CIN | Q2 12:06 | 7 | 38 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| CLE | Q2 8:46 | 7 | 92 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| CIN | Q2 5:03 | 11 | 106 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| CLE | Q2 0:45 | 6 | 20 | Turnover on downs | 17–10 |
| CIN | Q2 0:05 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 17–10 |
| CIN | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 83 | Touchdown | 24–10 |
| CLE | Q3 9:48 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 24–10 |
| CIN | Q3 9:31 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 27–10 |
| CLE | Q3 8:24 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 27–10 |
| CIN | Q3 6:30 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 27–10 |
| CLE | Q3 3:03 | 8 | 46 | Turnover on downs | 27–10 |
| CIN | Q4 14:56 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 27–10 |
| CLE | Q4 13:20 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 27–10 |
| CIN | Q4 13:09 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 27–10 |
| CLE | Q4 12:59 | 7 | 41 | Field goal | 27–13 |
| CIN | Q4 9:48 | 7 | 44 | Turnover | 27–13 |
| CLE | Q4 5:24 | 6 | 32 | Turnover on downs | 27–13 |
| CIN | Q4 3:49 | 9 | 42 | Turnover on downs | 27–13 |
| CLE | Q4 0:46 | 3 | 33 | End of half | 27–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 26/34 | 280 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 26 | 126 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Chad Johnson | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Chris Perry | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 26/43 | 278 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuben Droughns | 12 | 78 | 6.5 | 0 |
| William Green | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
7.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.0%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.61
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.04