2002 · Week 6

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Jay Fiedler

24·22

Broncos

Denver

QB Brian Griese

Invesco Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

DEN -3.5

Total

41

Model margin

+1.8est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapBroncos
  • +0.017EPA / play+0.065
  • 45.0%Success rate49.4%
  • +0.060EPA / dropback+0.067
  • -0.028EPA / rush+0.062
  • 11.0%Explosive rate8.4%
  • 37.0%Third-down rate37.9%
  • 65.1%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
  • 1.85Points / drive1.76
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.4%
  • -0.083EPA / play allowed+0.007

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 7–4 since 1999

Meetings average 48.6 points. DEN are 2-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W3DEN @ MIA20–70MIA
2020 · W11MIA @ DEN13–20DEN
2017 · W13DEN @ MIA9–35MIA
2014 · W12MIA @ DEN36–39DEN
2011 · W7DEN @ MIA18–15DEN
2008 · W9MIA @ DEN26–17MIA
2005 · W1DEN @ MIA10–34MIA
2004 · W14MIA @ DEN17–20DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–DEN
DENQ1 15:00724Field goal0–3
MIAQ1 12:0937Punt0–3
DENQ1 10:321035Field goal0–6
MIAQ1 4:1433Missed field goal0–6
DENQ1 2:251267Field goal0–9
MIAQ2 11:25876Touchdown7–9
DENQ2 7:11469Turnover7–9
MIAQ2 5:111054Turnover7–9
DENQ2 0:53523End of half7–9
MIAQ3 15:002-7Turnover7–9
DENQ3 14:0430Field goal7–12
MIAQ3 13:44623Punt7–12
DENQ3 10:04611Punt7–12
MIAQ3 6:153-7Punt7–12
DENQ3 4:35411Punt7–12
MIAQ3 2:3739Punt7–12
DENQ3 0:29628Turnover7–12
MIAQ4 12:56652Touchdown14–12
DENQ4 9:48312Opp touchdown21–12
MIAQ4 8:1300Opp touchdown21–12
DENQ4 8:131378Touchdown21–19
MIAQ4 3:37610Punt21–19
DENQ4 1:51638Field goal21–22
MIAQ4 0:45439Field goal24–22
DENQ4 0:06114End of half24–22

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Fiedler19/2921001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Williams20492.52
James McKnight11616.00
Robert Edwards122.00
Jay Fiedler1-9-9.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Oronde Gadsden56770
Randy McMichael58620
Dedric Ward23300
Ricky Williams44300
James McKnight0100
Chris Chambers0200
Robert Edwards11-20

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Griese27/4633512

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clinton Portis18754.20
Brian Griese3196.30
Mike Anderson5173.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rod Smith916880
Clinton Portis66670
Ed McCaffrey57610
Mike Anderson24531
Ashley Lelie22410
Shannon Sharpe35250
Scottie Montgomery0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.9%

Expected total

47.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.77
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.80