Closing spread
DEN -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
+1.8est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.017EPA / play+0.065
- 45.0%Success rate49.4%
- +0.060EPA / dropback+0.067
- -0.028EPA / rush+0.062
- 11.0%Explosive rate8.4%
- 37.0%Third-down rate37.9%
- 65.1%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
- 1.85Points / drive1.76
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.083EPA / play allowed+0.007
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 7–4 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. DEN are 2-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 19/29 | 210 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 20 | 49 | 2.5 | 2 |
| James McKnight | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Robert Edwards | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 1 | -9 | -9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oronde Gadsden | 5 | 6 | 77 | 0 |
| Randy McMichael | 5 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| James McKnight | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Edwards | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 27/46 | 335 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 18 | 75 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Smith | 9 | 16 | 88 | 0 |
| Clinton Portis | 6 | 6 | 67 | 0 |
| Ed McCaffrey | 5 | 7 | 61 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 2 | 4 | 53 | 1 |
| Ashley Lelie | 2 | 2 | 41 | 0 |
| Shannon Sharpe | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Scottie Montgomery | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
47.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.77
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.80