Closing spread
DET -3
Total
46
Model margin
+1.9est.
DET perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.059EPA / play-0.102
- 42.0%Success rate38.8%
- -0.003EPA / dropback-0.109
- -0.158EPA / rush-0.090
- 6.6%Explosive rate5.7%
- 41.1%Third-down rate38.8%
- 51.1%Red-zone TD rate54.3%
- 1.29Points / drive1.20
- 3.8%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.052EPA / play allowed-0.020
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. DET are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 27/44 | 201 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 12 | 58 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Najeh Davenport | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 15/28 | 167 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jones | 25 | 87 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.69
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.87