Closing spread
IND -3
Total
47
Model margin
+1.2est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.188EPA / play-0.109
- 51.2%Success rate38.7%
- +0.339EPA / dropback-0.061
- -0.007EPA / rush-0.179
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.2%
- 50.1%Third-down rate39.5%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate39.7%
- 2.60Points / drive1.20
- 1.5%Turnover rate3.2%
- -0.061EPA / play allowed-0.088
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 10–7 since 1999
Meetings average 39.8 points. BAL are 5-12 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–BAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 27 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 11:37 | 9 | 43 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 7:50 | 7 | 46 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 3:51 | 6 | 35 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 0:52 | 7 | 34 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q2 11:49 | 7 | 34 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q2 8:28 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q2 6:37 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q2 4:59 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q2 2:53 | 10 | 47 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| BAL | Q2 0:15 | 2 | 28 | End of half | 3–0 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 3–0 |
| BAL | Q3 14:03 | 6 | 22 | Missed field goal | 3–0 |
| IND | Q3 11:33 | 8 | 58 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| BAL | Q3 8:43 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–0 |
| IND | Q3 7:08 | 4 | 71 | Touchdown | 17–0 |
| BAL | Q3 5:08 | 14 | 53 | Missed field goal | 17–0 |
| IND | Q4 13:46 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 17–0 |
| BAL | Q4 12:22 | 12 | 68 | Turnover | 17–0 |
| IND | Q4 8:18 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 17–0 |
| BAL | Q4 3:37 | 4 | 14 | Opp touchdown | 24–0 |
| BAL | Q4 2:39 | 5 | 24 | Turnover | 24–0 |
| IND | Q4 1:41 | 1 | 0 | Punt | 24–0 |
| BAL | Q4 1:00 | 5 | 63 | Touchdown | 24–7 |
| IND | Q4 0:13 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–7 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 21/36 | 254 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 23 | 88 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Wright | 19/31 | 214 | 1 | 2 |
| Kyle Boller | 15/23 | 141 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 16 | 48 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Kyle Boller | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.2%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.39
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.17