2005 · Week 1

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

24·7

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Kyle Boller

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 76°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

IND -3

Total

47

Model margin

+1.2est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapRavens
  • +0.188EPA / play-0.109
  • 51.2%Success rate38.7%
  • +0.339EPA / dropback-0.061
  • -0.007EPA / rush-0.179
  • 8.0%Explosive rate7.2%
  • 50.1%Third-down rate39.5%
  • 63.1%Red-zone TD rate39.7%
  • 2.60Points / drive1.20
  • 1.5%Turnover rate3.2%
  • -0.061EPA / play allowed-0.088

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 10–7 since 1999

Meetings average 39.8 points. BAL are 5-12 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1BAL @ IND41–23BAL
2023 · W3IND @ BAL22–19IND
2021 · W5IND @ BAL25–31BAL
2020 · W9BAL @ IND24–10BAL
2017 · W16IND @ BAL16–23BAL
2014 · W5BAL @ IND13–20IND
2012 · playoffsIND @ BAL9–24BAL
2011 · W14IND @ BAL10–24BAL

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning21/3625420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Edgerrin James23883.80
Peyton Manning3-2-0.70

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Anthony Wright19/3121412
Kyle Boller15/2314101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis16483.00
Chester Taylor4276.80
Kyle Boller122.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

7.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.2%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.39
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.17