Closing spread
KC -3
Total
48.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
KC perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.124EPA / play+0.097
- 40.1%Success rate45.7%
- -0.093EPA / dropback+0.143
- -0.171EPA / rush+0.042
- 5.7%Explosive rate10.6%
- 35.3%Third-down rate43.7%
- 39.0%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
- 1.30Points / drive2.01
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.9%
- +0.002EPA / play allowed+0.004
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 6–5 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. KC are 7-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 21/34 | 264 | 0 | 1 |
| Jay Fiedler | 6/10 | 88 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 20 | 57 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 15/26 | 200 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 9 | 110 | 12.2 | 2 |
| Priest Holmes | 22 | 85 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Dante Hall | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.95
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.57
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.95