Closing spread
STL -4.5
Total
46
Model margin
+4.2est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. SF are 31-23-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 13 | 55 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 7:21 | 2 | 13 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 6:49 | 4 | 21 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| SF | Q1 4:28 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LA | Q1 2:31 | 11 | 63 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| SF | Q2 13:07 | 5 | 77 | Touchdown | 6–7 |
| LA | Q2 9:45 | 5 | 2 | Opp touchdown | 6–14 |
| LA | Q2 6:48 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 6–14 |
| SF | Q2 6:48 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 6–14 |
| LA | Q2 5:24 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 6–14 |
| SF | Q2 3:18 | 5 | 36 | Touchdown | 6–21 |
| LA | Q2 1:16 | 8 | 59 | Field goal | 9–21 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 62 | Touchdown | 9–28 |
| LA | Q3 11:32 | 16 | 56 | Field goal | 12–28 |
| SF | Q3 1:52 | 4 | 18 | Turnover | 12–28 |
| LA | Q4 14:51 | 4 | 46 | Touchdown | 18–28 |
| SF | Q4 13:22 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 18–28 |
| LA | Q4 11:14 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 18–28 |
| SF | Q4 9:31 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 18–28 |
| LA | Q4 7:54 | 19 | 78 | Touchdown | 25–28 |
| SF | Q4 2:13 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 25–28 |
| LA | Q4 0:59 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 25–28 |
| SF | Q4 0:52 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 25–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Rattay | 11/16 | 165 | 2 | 0 |
| Arnaz Battle | 2/2 | 27 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 14 | 22 | 1.6 | 1 |
| Frank Gore | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Tim Rattay | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Arnaz Battle | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.2%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.01
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+4.62
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.17
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.