2025 · Week 5 · Division

Final / OT

49ers

San Francisco

QB Mac Jones

26·23

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LA -8.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+4.0est.

LA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Rams wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapRams
  • +0.091EPA / play+0.149
  • 48.5%Success rate52.2%
  • +0.175EPA / dropback+0.235
  • -0.033EPA / rush+0.021
  • 8.2%Explosive rate11.3%
  • +5.72CPOE+1.65
  • 50.4%Third-down rate40.0%
  • 65.6%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
  • 2.48Points / drive2.67
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999

Meetings average 43.4 points. LA are 23-31-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1SF @ LA27–7SF
2025 · W10LA @ SF42–26RAMS
2024 · W15LA @ SF12–6RAMS
2024 · W3SF @ LA24–27RAMS
2023 · W18LA @ SF21–20RAMS
2023 · W2SF @ LA30–23SF
2022 · W8SF @ LA31–14SF
2022 · W4LA @ SF9–24SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–LA
SFQ1 15:00987Touchdown7–0
LAQ1 10:0967Punt7–0
SFQ1 6:591776Touchdown14–0
LAQ2 13:44945Turnover14–0
SFQ2 8:51522Punt14–0
LAQ2 6:11985Touchdown14–7
SFQ2 2:091048Field goal17–7
LAQ3 15:00628Missed field goal17–7
SFQ3 12:461249Field goal20–7
LAQ3 6:33769Touchdown20–14
SFQ3 3:45722Punt20–14
LAQ4 14:031083Touchdown20–20
SFQ4 10:3932Punt20–20
LAQ4 9:1139Punt20–20
SFQ4 8:041262Field goal23–20
LAQ4 2:52654Turnover23–20
SFQ4 1:0532Punt23–20
LAQ4 0:42520Field goal23–23
SFQ4 0:0200End of half23–23
SFOT737Field goal26–23
LAOT656Turnover on downs26–23

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones33/4934220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey22572.60
Brian Robinson5122.40
Mac Jones451.30
Skyy Moore111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kendrick Bourne10111420
Christian McCaffrey89821
Jake Tonges711411
Demarcus Robinson37390
Marquez Valdes-Scantling1390
Luke Farrell1280
Malik Turner0100

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford30/4738930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams14654.60
Blake Corum11313.00
Matthew Stafford100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams511880
Puka Nacua1012851
Tutu Atwell24720
Kyren Williams810662
Jordan Whittington23330
Davis Allen22240
Terrance Ferguson11210
Colby Parkinson0100
Blake Corum0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.56.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

1.26%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.8%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.94
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.36
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.00