Closing spread
LA -8.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+4.0est.
LA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.091EPA / play+0.149
- 48.5%Success rate52.2%
- +0.175EPA / dropback+0.235
- -0.033EPA / rush+0.021
- 8.2%Explosive rate11.3%
- +5.72CPOE+1.65
- 50.4%Third-down rate40.0%
- 65.6%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
- 2.48Points / drive2.67
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. LA are 23-31-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 33/49 | 342 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 22 | 57 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Skyy Moore | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Bourne | 10 | 11 | 142 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 8 | 9 | 82 | 1 |
| Jake Tonges | 7 | 11 | 41 | 1 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 3 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Luke Farrell | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Malik Turner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 30/47 | 389 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 14 | 65 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Blake Corum | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 5 | 11 | 88 | 0 |
| Puka Nacua | 10 | 12 | 85 | 1 |
| Tutu Atwell | 2 | 4 | 72 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 8 | 10 | 66 | 2 |
| Jordan Whittington | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Davis Allen | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Terrance Ferguson | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Blake Corum | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
1.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.8%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.94
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.36
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.00