Closing spread
SF -5.5
Total
40
Model margin
-0.4est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.042EPA / play+0.179
- 44.9%Success rate51.6%
- +0.085EPA / dropback+0.298
- -0.022EPA / rush+0.034
- 9.4%Explosive rate13.8%
- -3.54CPOE+4.51
- 41.4%Third-down rate48.1%
- 64.2%Red-zone TD rate70.4%
- 2.13Points / drive2.69
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. SF are 31-23-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 17/24 | 163 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 17 | 56 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Ronnie Rivers | 13 | 52 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Zach Evans | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Tutu Atwell | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brycen Hopkins | 2 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Puka Nacua | 4 | 6 | 41 | 1 |
| Davis Allen | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Ben Skowronek | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Tyler Johnson | 2 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| Tutu Atwell | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 16/26 | 189 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Mitchell | 14 | 52 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Jordan Mason | 6 | 36 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Conley | 3 | 6 | 69 | 0 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Charlie Woerner | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Jordan Mason | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Ronnie Bell | 1 | 5 | 5 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.9%
Expected total
47.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.30
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-4.43
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.42