2023 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Carson Wentz

21·20

49ers

San Francisco

QB Sam Darnold

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

SF -5.5

Total

40

Model margin

-0.4est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge map49ers
  • +0.042EPA / play+0.179
  • 44.9%Success rate51.6%
  • +0.085EPA / dropback+0.298
  • -0.022EPA / rush+0.034
  • 9.4%Explosive rate13.8%
  • -3.54CPOE+4.51
  • 41.4%Third-down rate48.1%
  • 64.2%Red-zone TD rate70.4%
  • 2.13Points / drive2.69
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999

Meetings average 43.4 points. SF are 31-23-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1SF @ LA27–7SF
2025 · W10LA @ SF42–26RAMS
2025 · W5SF @ LA26–23SF
2024 · W15LA @ SF12–6RAMS
2024 · W3SF @ LA24–27RAMS
2023 · W2SF @ LA30–23SF
2022 · W8SF @ LA31–14SF
2022 · W4LA @ SF9–24SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–SF
SFQ1 15:001275Touchdown0–7
LAQ1 7:271175Touchdown7–7
SFQ1 1:531883Touchdown7–14
LAQ2 6:5910Turnover7–14
SFQ2 6:54626Missed field goal7–14
LAQ2 4:19713Punt7–14
SFQ2 1:38990Touchdown7–20
LAQ2 0:11420End of half7–20
LAQ3 15:001880Touchdown13–20
SFQ3 4:4569Punt13–20
LAQ3 1:021239Turnover on downs13–20
SFQ4 9:5936Punt13–20
LAQ4 7:49623Touchdown21–20
SFQ4 4:563-7Punt21–20
LAQ4 3:4869Punt21–20
SFQ4 0:55318Turnover21–20
LAQ4 0:2500End of half21–20

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz17/2416321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carson Wentz17563.31
Ronnie Rivers13524.00
Zach Evans133.00
Royce Freeman420.50
Tutu Atwell1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brycen Hopkins23470
Puka Nacua46411
Davis Allen44250
Ben Skowronek22220
Royce Freeman11130
Tyler Johnson2381
Tutu Atwell2470

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold16/2618910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Elijah Mitchell14523.71
Jordan Mason6366.00
Sam Darnold7192.71
Deebo Samuel Sr.11111.00
Ray-Ray McCloud177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Conley36690
Brandon Aiyuk34250
Ray-Ray McCloud34220
Deebo Samuel Sr.22210
Charlie Woerner11200
Elijah Mitchell22150
Jordan Mason11120
Ronnie Bell1551

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.54.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

2.89%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.9%

Expected total

47.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.30
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-4.43
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.42