Closing spread
SF -7.5
Total
45
Model margin
-0.6est.
LA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.179EPA / play+0.042
- 51.6%Success rate44.9%
- +0.298EPA / dropback+0.085
- +0.034EPA / rush-0.022
- 13.8%Explosive rate9.4%
- +4.51CPOE-3.54
- 48.1%Third-down rate41.4%
- 70.4%Red-zone TD rate64.2%
- 2.69Points / drive2.13
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. LA are 23-31-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 17/25 | 206 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 20 | 116 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 5 | 38 | 7.6 | 1 |
| Brock Purdy | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 6 | 9 | 63 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 2 | 3 | 51 | 0 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 3 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 34/55 | 307 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 14 | 52 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Matthew Stafford | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Ben Skowronek | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Tutu Atwell | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Puka Nacua | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | 15 | 20 | 147 | 0 |
| Tutu Atwell | 7 | 9 | 77 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 6 | 10 | 48 | 1 |
| Tyler Higbee | 3 | 7 | 12 | 0 |
| Ben Skowronek | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Ronnie Rivers | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
4.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.5%
Expected total
47.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.30
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.60