2023 · Week 2 · Division

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

30·23

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

SoFi Stadium · dome

Closing spread

SF -7.5

Total

45

Model margin

-0.6est.

LA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Rams wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapRams
  • +0.179EPA / play+0.042
  • 51.6%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.298EPA / dropback+0.085
  • +0.034EPA / rush-0.022
  • 13.8%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +4.51CPOE-3.54
  • 48.1%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 70.4%Red-zone TD rate64.2%
  • 2.69Points / drive2.13
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999

Meetings average 43.4 points. LA are 23-31-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1SF @ LA27–7SF
2025 · W10LA @ SF42–26RAMS
2025 · W5SF @ LA26–23SF
2024 · W15LA @ SF12–6RAMS
2024 · W3SF @ LA24–27RAMS
2023 · W18LA @ SF21–20RAMS
2022 · W8SF @ LA31–14SF
2022 · W4LA @ SF9–24SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–LA
SFQ1 15:001175Touchdown7–0
LAQ1 8:251160Field goal7–3
SFQ1 1:54666Field goal10–3
LAQ2 13:32853Touchdown10–10
SFQ2 9:49530Punt10–10
LAQ2 7:021383Touchdown10–17
SFQ2 1:45956Touchdown17–17
LAQ3 15:00730Punt17–17
SFQ3 10:0233Punt17–17
LAQ3 8:45851Turnover17–17
SFQ3 4:10533Field goal20–17
LAQ3 1:213-10Punt20–17
SFQ3 0:20774Touchdown27–17
LAQ4 11:281356Field goal27–20
SFQ4 7:1338Punt27–20
LAQ4 5:2935Turnover27–20
SFQ4 4:4837Field goal30–20
LAQ4 2:5948Turnover on downs30–20
SFQ4 2:23513Punt30–20
LAQ4 1:34950Field goal30–23

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy17/2520600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey201165.81
Deebo Samuel Sr.5387.61
Brock Purdy351.71

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Deebo Samuel Sr.69630
Jauan Jennings23510
Brandon Aiyuk36430
George Kittle33300
Christian McCaffrey33190

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford34/5530712

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams14523.71
Matthew Stafford4174.30
Ben Skowronek11111.00
Tutu Atwell155.00
Puka Nacua242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Puka Nacua15201470
Tutu Atwell79770
Kyren Williams610481
Tyler Higbee37120
Ben Skowronek11100
Van Jefferson1490
Ronnie Rivers1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

4.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.5%

Expected total

47.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.30
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.60