2024 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

12·6

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

SF -3

Total

48.5

Model margin

+0.9est.

SF perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge map49ers
  • +0.038EPA / play+0.063
  • 47.5%Success rate46.0%
  • +0.112EPA / dropback+0.142
  • -0.069EPA / rush-0.059
  • 7.9%Explosive rate10.5%
  • -0.97CPOE+1.77
  • 37.0%Third-down rate43.1%
  • 49.9%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
  • 2.09Points / drive2.24
  • 1.3%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999

Meetings average 43.4 points. SF are 31-23-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1SF @ LA27–7SF
2025 · W10LA @ SF42–26RAMS
2025 · W5SF @ LA26–23SF
2024 · W3SF @ LA24–27RAMS
2023 · W18LA @ SF21–20RAMS
2023 · W2SF @ LA30–23SF
2022 · W8SF @ LA31–14SF
2022 · W4LA @ SF9–24SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–SF
SFQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
LAQ1 14:0346Punt0–0
SFQ1 12:48439Field goal0–3
LAQ1 10:0137Punt0–3
SFQ1 8:2136Punt0–3
LAQ1 6:4737Punt0–3
SFQ1 5:06624Punt0–3
LAQ1 2:0033Punt0–3
SFQ1 1:10625Punt0–3
LAQ2 13:371038Punt0–3
SFQ2 7:4467Punt0–3
LAQ2 4:52620Field goal3–3
SFQ2 1:0536Punt3–3
LAQ2 0:2918End of half3–3
LAQ3 15:0035Punt3–3
SFQ3 13:12934Field goal3–6
LAQ3 8:231680Field goal6–6
SFQ4 13:38416Punt6–6
LAQ4 12:28459Field goal9–6
SFQ4 9:28839Turnover9–6
LAQ4 5:141269Field goal12–6
SFQ4 0:182-6End of half12–6

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford16/2716000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams291083.70
Matthew Stafford4184.50
Puka Nacua2115.50
Blake Corum351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Puka Nacua78970
Colby Parkinson25210
Hunter Long22170
Blake Corum23150
Tutu Atwell1260
Kyren Williams2240
Demarcus Robinson0100
Cooper Kupp0300

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy14/3114201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaac Guerendo16573.60
Deebo Samuel Sr.231.50
Brock Purdy133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Kittle47610
Jauan Jennings29310
Isaac Guerendo44180
Deebo Samuel Sr.37160
Ricky Pearsall14160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

7.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.4%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.84
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.87