Closing spread
SF -3
Total
48.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
SF perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.038EPA / play+0.063
- 47.5%Success rate46.0%
- +0.112EPA / dropback+0.142
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.059
- 7.9%Explosive rate10.5%
- -0.97CPOE+1.77
- 37.0%Third-down rate43.1%
- 49.9%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
- 2.09Points / drive2.24
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. SF are 31-23-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 16/27 | 160 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 29 | 108 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Puka Nacua | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Blake Corum | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | 7 | 8 | 97 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 2 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Hunter Long | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Blake Corum | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Tutu Atwell | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 14/31 | 142 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Guerendo | 16 | 57 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Brock Purdy | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 4 | 7 | 61 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 2 | 9 | 31 | 0 |
| Isaac Guerendo | 4 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 3 | 7 | 16 | 0 |
| Ricky Pearsall | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
7.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.4%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.84
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.87