2025 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

42·26

49ers

San Francisco

QB Mac Jones

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

LA -5.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

-0.6est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge map49ers
  • +0.149EPA / play+0.091
  • 52.2%Success rate48.5%
  • +0.235EPA / dropback+0.175
  • +0.021EPA / rush-0.033
  • 11.3%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +1.65CPOE+5.72
  • 40.0%Third-down rate50.4%
  • 68.9%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
  • 2.67Points / drive2.48
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999

Meetings average 43.4 points. SF are 31-23-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1SF @ LA27–7SF
2025 · W5SF @ LA26–23SF
2024 · W15LA @ SF12–6RAMS
2024 · W3SF @ LA24–27RAMS
2023 · W18LA @ SF21–20RAMS
2023 · W2SF @ LA30–23SF
2022 · W8SF @ LA31–14SF
2022 · W4LA @ SF9–24SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–SF
LAQ1 15:001064Touchdown7–0
SFQ1 10:1438Punt7–0
LAQ1 8:54881Touchdown14–0
SFQ1 5:34542Turnover14–0
LAQ1 3:14959Touchdown21–0
SFQ2 13:41954Turnover on downs21–0
LAQ2 8:403-1Punt21–0
SFQ2 6:44736Touchdown21–7
LAQ2 3:15729Punt21–7
SFQ2 1:06542Punt21–7
LAQ2 0:1100End of half21–7
SFQ3 15:001065Touchdown21–14
LAQ3 9:331249Touchdown28–14
SFQ3 2:391070Touchdown28–20
LAQ4 12:29564Touchdown35–20
SFQ4 10:0456Turnover35–20
LAQ4 8:29638Touchdown42–20
SFQ4 5:10870Touchdown42–26
LAQ4 2:59521End of half42–26

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford24/3628040

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams14735.22
Blake Corum13564.30
Matthew Stafford3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams68771
Puka Nacua56641
Colby Parkinson45411
Tyler Higbee33330
Terrance Ferguson14320
Xavier Smith11140
Kyren Williams23110
Davis Allen2281
Konata Mumpfield0200

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones33/3931931

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Robinson8415.11
Christian McCaffrey12302.50
Mac Jones133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Kittle99841
Jauan Jennings69711
Christian McCaffrey810660
Demarcus Robinson34340
Kendrick Bourne11190
Skyy Moore11180
Luke Farrell22151
Brian Robinson1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

1.88%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.5%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.94
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.36
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.59