Closing spread
LA -5.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
-0.6est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.149EPA / play+0.091
- 52.2%Success rate48.5%
- +0.235EPA / dropback+0.175
- +0.021EPA / rush-0.033
- 11.3%Explosive rate8.2%
- +1.65CPOE+5.72
- 40.0%Third-down rate50.4%
- 68.9%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
- 2.67Points / drive2.48
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. SF are 31-23-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 24/36 | 280 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 14 | 73 | 5.2 | 2 |
| Blake Corum | 13 | 56 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 6 | 8 | 77 | 1 |
| Puka Nacua | 5 | 6 | 64 | 1 |
| Colby Parkinson | 4 | 5 | 41 | 1 |
| Tyler Higbee | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Terrance Ferguson | 1 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Xavier Smith | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Davis Allen | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| Konata Mumpfield | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 33/39 | 319 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson | 8 | 41 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 12 | 30 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 9 | 9 | 84 | 1 |
| Jauan Jennings | 6 | 9 | 71 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 8 | 10 | 66 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Skyy Moore | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Luke Farrell | 2 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
| Brian Robinson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.5%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.94
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.36
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.59