2024 · Week 3 · Division

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

24·27

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

SF -6

Total

44.5

Model margin

+2.5est.

LA perspective

Push chance

2.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Rams wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapRams
  • +0.063EPA / play+0.038
  • 46.0%Success rate47.5%
  • +0.142EPA / dropback+0.112
  • -0.059EPA / rush-0.069
  • 10.5%Explosive rate7.9%
  • +1.77CPOE-0.97
  • 43.1%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 57.5%Red-zone TD rate49.9%
  • 2.24Points / drive2.09
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999

Meetings average 43.4 points. LA are 23-31-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1SF @ LA27–7SF
2025 · W10LA @ SF42–26RAMS
2025 · W5SF @ LA26–23SF
2024 · W15LA @ SF12–6RAMS
2023 · W18LA @ SF21–20RAMS
2023 · W2SF @ LA30–23SF
2022 · W8SF @ LA31–14SF
2022 · W4LA @ SF9–24SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–LA
SFQ1 15:00855Touchdown7–0
LAQ1 11:1238Punt7–0
SFQ1 9:401868Touchdown14–0
LAQ1 1:47823Punt14–0
SFQ2 11:51521Punt14–0
LAQ2 8:551698Touchdown14–7
SFQ2 1:11426Turnover14–7
LAQ2 0:273-3End of half14–7
LAQ3 15:00420Punt14–7
SFQ3 13:281191Touchdown21–7
LAQ3 7:01824Touchdown21–14
SFQ3 3:531272Field goal24–14
LAQ4 11:571265Field goal24–17
SFQ4 6:15743Missed field goal24–17
LAQ4 2:43355Touchdown24–24
SFQ4 1:51515Punt24–24
LAQ4 0:4226Field goal24–27
SFQ4 0:02134End of half24–27

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy22/3029230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Mason19774.10
Brock Purdy10414.10
Isaac Guerendo5193.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jauan Jennings11121753
Brandon Aiyuk510480
Eric Saubert22410
Ronnie Bell13120
Jordan Mason22110

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford16/2522110
Tutu Atwell0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams24893.72
Ronnie Rivers294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tutu Atwell45930
Demarcus Robinson14320
Jordan Whittington33280
Kyren Williams22271
Colby Parkinson35210
Tyler Johnson34200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -64.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

2.67%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.9%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.84
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.54