Closing spread
SF -6
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
LA perspective
Push chance
2.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.063EPA / play+0.038
- 46.0%Success rate47.5%
- +0.142EPA / dropback+0.112
- -0.059EPA / rush-0.069
- 10.5%Explosive rate7.9%
- +1.77CPOE-0.97
- 43.1%Third-down rate37.0%
- 57.5%Red-zone TD rate49.9%
- 2.24Points / drive2.09
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. LA are 23-31-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 22/30 | 292 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Mason | 19 | 77 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Brock Purdy | 10 | 41 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Isaac Guerendo | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jauan Jennings | 11 | 12 | 175 | 3 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 5 | 10 | 48 | 0 |
| Eric Saubert | 2 | 2 | 41 | 0 |
| Ronnie Bell | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Jordan Mason | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 16/25 | 221 | 1 | 0 |
| Tutu Atwell | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 24 | 89 | 3.7 | 2 |
| Ronnie Rivers | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tutu Atwell | 4 | 5 | 93 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Jordan Whittington | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 2 | 2 | 27 | 1 |
| Colby Parkinson | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Tyler Johnson | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.67%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.9%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.84
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.54