Closing spread
SF -1
Total
42
Model margin
-0.8est.
LA perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.084EPA / play-0.083
- 46.1%Success rate41.2%
- +0.171EPA / dropback-0.094
- -0.021EPA / rush-0.065
- 10.7%Explosive rate7.4%
- -1.99CPOE-2.69
- 45.1%Third-down rate40.2%
- 60.5%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 2.20Points / drive1.57
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. LA are 23-31-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 21/25 | 235 | 2 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 1/1 | 34 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 18 | 94 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Jeff Wilson | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aiyuk | 6 | 6 | 81 | 1 |
| Ross Dwelley | 1 | 1 | 56 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 8 | 9 | 55 | 1 |
| George Kittle | 3 | 5 | 39 | 1 |
| Jeff Wilson | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 22/33 | 187 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Rivers | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 8 | 12 | 79 | 1 |
| Allen Robinson | 5 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 2 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Ronnie Rivers | 4 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Ben Skowronek | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.9%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.40
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.33
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-0.80