2022 · Week 8 · Division

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

31·14

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

SF -1

Total

42

Model margin

-0.8est.

LA perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Rams wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapRams
  • +0.084EPA / play-0.083
  • 46.1%Success rate41.2%
  • +0.171EPA / dropback-0.094
  • -0.021EPA / rush-0.065
  • 10.7%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -1.99CPOE-2.69
  • 45.1%Third-down rate40.2%
  • 60.5%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
  • 2.20Points / drive1.57
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999

Meetings average 43.4 points. LA are 23-31-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1SF @ LA27–7SF
2025 · W10LA @ SF42–26RAMS
2025 · W5SF @ LA26–23SF
2024 · W15LA @ SF12–6RAMS
2024 · W3SF @ LA24–27RAMS
2023 · W18LA @ SF21–20RAMS
2023 · W2SF @ LA30–23SF
2022 · W4LA @ SF9–24SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–LA
LAQ1 15:003-2Punt0–0
SFQ1 13:11730Punt0–0
LAQ1 9:301985Touchdown0–7
SFQ1 0:09676Touchdown7–7
LAQ2 12:10975Touchdown7–14
SFQ2 6:351132Field goal10–14
LAQ2 1:0027End of half10–14
SFQ3 15:00422Punt10–14
LAQ3 12:46832Punt10–14
SFQ3 8:451186Touchdown17–14
LAQ3 1:513-6Punt17–14
SFQ3 0:15643Touchdown24–14
LAQ4 12:07618Punt24–14
SFQ4 9:47573Touchdown31–14
LAQ4 6:4130Punt31–14
SFQ4 4:4336Punt31–14
LAQ4 2:24416End of half31–14

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo21/2523520
Christian McCaffrey1/13410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey18945.21
Jeff Wilson4143.50
Jimmy Garoppolo133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Aiyuk66811
Ross Dwelley11560
Christian McCaffrey89551
George Kittle35391
Jeff Wilson22210
Ray-Ray McCloud12110
Tyler Kroft1160

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford22/3318710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronnie Rivers8212.60
Darrell Henderson4164.00
Malcolm Brown5102.00
Cooper Kupp2105.00
Matthew Stafford2-1-0.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cooper Kupp812791
Allen Robinson57540
Tyler Higbee26150
Ronnie Rivers44150
Darrell Henderson22140
Ben Skowronek11100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.9%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.40
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.33
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin-0.80