Closing spread
LA -3.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
-17.5est.
LA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.190EPA / play-0.226
- 56.9%Success rate43.3%
- +0.227EPA / dropback-0.270
- +0.142EPA / rush-0.171
- 7.7%Explosive rate6.7%
- +0.77CPOE-4.74
- 58.3%Third-down rate22.2%
- 75.0%Red-zone TD rate33.3%
- 2.98Points / drive0.69
- 1.5%Turnover rate3.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. LA are 23-31-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 25/34 | 205 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 10 | 68 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Kaelon Black | 14 | 65 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Brock Purdy | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 3 | 50 | 1 |
| Mike Evans | 6 | 7 | 49 | 1 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 6 | 7 | 48 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 5 | 8 | 20 | 0 |
| Luke Farrell | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Kaelon Black | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 15/25 | 155 | 0 | 1 |
| Stetson Bennett | 2/3 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Corum | 10 | 54 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 11 | 41 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Ronnie Rivers | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Stetson Bennett | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | 5 | 9 | 74 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 3 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Davis Allen | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Jordan Whittington | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Ronnie Rivers | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Konata Mumpfield | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrance Ferguson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
0.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
11.1%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-19.69
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-17.47