2026 · Week 1 · Division

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

27·7

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

Melbourne Cricket Ground · dome · grass · 57°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

LA -3.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+2.2est.

LA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Rams wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapRams
  • +0.153EPA / play+0.059
  • 52.5%Success rate49.0%
  • +0.265EPA / dropback+0.117
  • -0.001EPA / rush-0.042
  • 10.8%Explosive rate8.1%
  • +4.63CPOE+1.33
  • 51.0%Third-down rate46.2%
  • 88.6%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
  • 2.81Points / drive2.15
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999

Meetings average 43.4 points. LA are 23-31-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10LA @ SF42–26RAMS
2025 · W5SF @ LA26–23SF
2024 · W15LA @ SF12–6RAMS
2024 · W3SF @ LA24–27RAMS
2023 · W18LA @ SF21–20RAMS
2023 · W2SF @ LA30–23SF
2022 · W8SF @ LA31–14SF
2022 · W4LA @ SF9–24SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–LA
LAQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
SFQ1 13:281465Field goal3–0
LAQ1 6:15615Punt3–0
SFQ1 3:1838Punt3–0
LAQ1 1:52457Touchdown3–7
SFQ2 14:57623Turnover3–7
LAQ2 12:04734Turnover3–7
SFQ2 8:52986Touchdown10–7
LAQ2 4:28523Punt10–7
SFQ2 2:43626Punt10–7
LAQ2 0:2000End of half10–7
SFQ3 15:00751Touchdown17–7
LAQ3 11:031372Turnover on downs17–7
SFQ3 3:411199Touchdown24–7
LAQ4 12:57617Turnover24–7
SFQ4 11:0835Field goal27–7
LAQ4 9:43619Turnover on downs27–7
SFQ4 7:54616Missed field goal27–7
LAQ4 3:291045End of half27–7

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy25/3420531

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey10686.80
Kaelon Black14654.60
Brock Purdy5295.80
Deebo Samuel Sr.11212.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demarcus Robinson23501
Mike Evans67491
Deebo Samuel Sr.67481
Christian McCaffrey58200
Luke Farrell22190
George Kittle25120
Kaelon Black1150

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford15/2515501
Stetson Bennett2/31300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Blake Corum10545.40
Kyren Williams11413.71
Ronnie Rivers5193.80
Stetson Bennett199.00
Matthew Stafford2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Puka Nacua59740
Davante Adams36260
Kyren Williams33240
Davis Allen11130
Tyler Higbee22120
Jordan Whittington1180
Colby Parkinson1260
Ronnie Rivers1150
Konata Mumpfield0100
Terrance Ferguson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

2.53%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.9%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.04
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.18