Closing spread
SEA -1
Total
41.5
Model margin
+6.4est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.020EPA / play+0.156
- 40.6%Success rate49.3%
- -0.017EPA / dropback+0.205
- -0.024EPA / rush+0.100
- 9.3%Explosive rate11.2%
- 43.8%Third-down rate40.1%
- 51.9%Red-zone TD rate78.4%
- 1.65Points / drive2.39
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.4%
- -0.022EPA / play allowed-0.046
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–7 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.4 points. SEA are 9-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ATL–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 38 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 11:36 | 5 | 29 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 9:03 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 5:34 | 6 | 40 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 1:41 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q2 14:42 | 12 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| ATL | Q2 8:24 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q2 6:55 | 7 | 73 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| ATL | Q2 3:56 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–14 |
| SEA | Q2 2:33 | 6 | 66 | Touchdown | 0–21 |
| ATL | Q2 0:28 | 1 | 4 | End of half | 0–21 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 10 | Punt | 0–21 |
| ATL | Q3 13:06 | 8 | 41 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| SEA | Q3 10:14 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–21 |
| ATL | Q3 8:44 | 4 | 35 | Field goal | 10–21 |
| SEA | Q3 7:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–21 |
| ATL | Q3 5:58 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–21 |
| SEA | Q3 5:09 | 7 | 27 | Punt | 10–21 |
| ATL | Q3 0:58 | 5 | 9 | Punt | 10–21 |
| SEA | Q4 14:12 | 12 | 82 | Turnover | 10–21 |
| ATL | Q4 6:56 | 7 | 51 | Touchdown | 18–21 |
| SEA | Q4 3:58 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 18–21 |
| ATL | Q4 2:39 | 4 | 1 | Turnover on downs | 18–21 |
| SEA | Q4 1:35 | 1 | 11 | End of half | 18–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 11/19 | 123 | 1 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 16 | 54 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 8 | 43 | 5.4 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 1 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 20/31 | 281 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 28 | 144 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Maurice Morris | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.0%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.77
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+6.41