Closing spread
SEA -1
Total
41.5
Model margin
+6.4est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.020EPA / play+0.156
- 40.6%Success rate49.3%
- -0.017EPA / dropback+0.205
- -0.024EPA / rush+0.100
- 9.3%Explosive rate11.2%
- 43.8%Third-down rate40.1%
- 51.9%Red-zone TD rate78.4%
- 1.65Points / drive2.39
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.4%
- -0.022EPA / play allowed-0.046
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–7 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.4 points. SEA are 9-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 11/19 | 123 | 1 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 16 | 54 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 8 | 43 | 5.4 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 1 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 20/31 | 281 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 28 | 144 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Maurice Morris | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.0%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.77
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+6.41