2019 · Week 8

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

27·20

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Schaub

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

SEA -7.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+4.3est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapFalcons
  • +0.018EPA / play+0.014
  • 45.5%Success rate44.5%
  • +0.119EPA / dropback+0.089
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.159
  • 9.6%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +7.05CPOE+2.32
  • 39.1%Third-down rate41.8%
  • 65.9%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
  • 1.86Points / drive2.01
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 10–7 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.4 points. ATL are 8-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14SEA @ ATL37–9SEA
2024 · W7SEA @ ATL34–14SEA
2022 · W3ATL @ SEA27–23ATL
2020 · W1SEA @ ATL38–25SEA
2017 · W11ATL @ SEA34–31ATL
2016 · playoffsSEA @ ATL20–36ATL
2016 · W6ATL @ SEA24–26SEA
2013 · W10SEA @ ATL33–10SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–ATL
SEAQ1 15:00851Field goal3–0
ATLQ1 11:17620Punt3–0
SEAQ1 8:00622Punt3–0
ATLQ1 5:08862Missed field goal3–0
SEAQ2 14:55659Touchdown10–0
ATLQ2 11:47620Turnover10–0
SEAQ2 9:03846Touchdown17–0
ATLQ2 4:46640Missed field goal17–0
SEAQ2 2:27962Touchdown24–0
ATLQ2 0:27322Turnover24–0
ATLQ3 15:00775Touchdown24–8
SEAQ3 10:544-5Punt24–8
ATLQ3 8:311044Field goal24–11
SEAQ3 3:2537Punt24–11
ATLQ3 1:09885Turnover24–11
SEAQ4 12:431178Field goal27–11
ATLQ4 5:531275Touchdown27–17
SEAQ4 3:0834Punt27–17
ATLQ4 2:41667Field goal27–20
SEAQ4 1:1700End of half27–20

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson14/2018220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Carson20904.51
Rashaad Penny8556.90
Russell Wilson441.00
David Moore122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett661000
David Moore14230
Malik Turner11210
Jacob Hollister22180
DK Metcalf35132
Luke Willson1170
Chris Carson0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub39/5246011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman13393.00
Brian Hill3299.71
Kenjon Barner111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones10121520
Calvin Ridley47700
Austin Hooper67651
Devonta Freeman88630
Russell Gage79580
Justin Hardy24230
Luke Stocker11180
Jaeden Graham11110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

3.63%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.7%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.73
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.88
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.35