Closing spread
SEA -7.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+4.3est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.018EPA / play+0.014
- 45.5%Success rate44.5%
- +0.119EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.159
- 9.6%Explosive rate7.4%
- +7.05CPOE+2.32
- 39.1%Third-down rate41.8%
- 65.9%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
- 1.86Points / drive2.01
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–7 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.4 points. ATL are 8-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 14/20 | 182 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Carson | 20 | 90 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Rashaad Penny | 8 | 55 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
| David Moore | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 6 | 6 | 100 | 0 |
| David Moore | 1 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Malik Turner | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Jacob Hollister | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 3 | 5 | 13 | 2 |
| Luke Willson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Chris Carson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 39/52 | 460 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 13 | 39 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brian Hill | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 1 |
| Kenjon Barner | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 10 | 12 | 152 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 4 | 7 | 70 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 6 | 7 | 65 | 1 |
| Devonta Freeman | 8 | 8 | 63 | 0 |
| Russell Gage | 7 | 9 | 58 | 0 |
| Justin Hardy | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Jaeden Graham | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
3.63%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.7%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.73
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+1.88
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.35