2020 · Week 1

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

38·25

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -1

Total

49.5

Model margin

-0.5est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapFalcons
  • +0.105EPA / play+0.042
  • 48.8%Success rate44.3%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback+0.145
  • -0.013EPA / rush-0.148
  • 8.6%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +6.78CPOE+1.23
  • 39.6%Third-down rate43.8%
  • 72.6%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
  • 2.52Points / drive2.28
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 10–7 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.4 points. ATL are 8-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14SEA @ ATL37–9SEA
2024 · W7SEA @ ATL34–14SEA
2022 · W3ATL @ SEA27–23ATL
2019 · W8SEA @ ATL27–20SEA
2017 · W11ATL @ SEA34–31ATL
2016 · playoffsSEA @ ATL20–36ATL
2016 · W6ATL @ SEA24–26SEA
2013 · W10SEA @ ATL33–10SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–ATL
ATLQ1 15:00855Field goal0–3
SEAQ1 11:061346Touchdown7–3
ATLQ1 4:43535Turnover on downs7–3
SEAQ1 2:10360Touchdown14–3
ATLQ1 0:53975Touchdown14–9
SEAQ2 11:253-3Punt14–9
ATLQ2 9:41612Punt14–9
SEAQ2 6:51522Punt14–9
ATLQ2 4:0039Punt14–9
SEAQ2 2:26310Punt14–9
ATLQ2 1:371254Field goal14–12
SEAQ3 15:001170Touchdown21–12
ATLQ3 9:41410Turnover21–12
SEAQ3 7:53536Touchdown28–12
ATLQ3 5:05755Turnover on downs28–12
SEAQ3 1:09877Field goal31–12
ATLQ4 11:19575Touchdown31–18
SEAQ4 9:3531Punt31–18
ATLQ4 7:49635Turnover on downs31–18
SEAQ4 6:15765Touchdown38–18
ATLQ4 3:451275Touchdown38–25
SEAQ4 0:3300Turnover38–25
ATLQ4 0:33216Turnover38–25
SEAQ4 0:1900End of half38–25

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson31/3532240

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Russell Wilson3299.70
Carlos Hyde7233.31
Chris Carson6213.50
David Moore11212.00
Travis Homer3-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DK Metcalf48951
Tyler Lockett88920
Chris Carson66452
David Moore33280
Greg Olsen44241
Freddie Swain11170
Jacob Hollister1190
Will Dissly2280
Travis Homer2240

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan37/5445021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley14564.01
Brian Hill3124.00
Ito Smith144.00
Matt Ryan1-1-1.00
Calvin Ridley1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones9121570
Calvin Ridley9121302
Russell Gage9121140
Hayden Hurst35380
Brian Hill2280
Ito Smith3320
Todd Gurley2510
Luke Stocker0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.8%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.16
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.45