Closing spread
ATL -1
Total
49.5
Model margin
-0.5est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Falcons
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.105EPA / play+0.042
- 48.8%Success rate44.3%
- +0.164EPA / dropback+0.145
- -0.013EPA / rush-0.148
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.0%
- +6.78CPOE+1.23
- 39.6%Third-down rate43.8%
- 72.6%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
- 2.52Points / drive2.28
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–7 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.4 points. ATL are 8-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 31/35 | 322 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Chris Carson | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| David Moore | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 4 | 8 | 95 | 1 |
| Tyler Lockett | 8 | 8 | 92 | 0 |
| Chris Carson | 6 | 6 | 45 | 2 |
| David Moore | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 4 | 4 | 24 | 1 |
| Freddie Swain | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Jacob Hollister | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 37/54 | 450 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 14 | 56 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Brian Hill | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ito Smith | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 9 | 12 | 157 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 9 | 12 | 130 | 2 |
| Russell Gage | 9 | 12 | 114 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 3 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Brian Hill | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Ito Smith | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.8%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.16
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.45