2024 · Week 7

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Geno Smith

34·14

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Kirk Cousins

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -3

Total

51.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapFalcons
  • -0.013EPA / play+0.041
  • 44.4%Success rate48.4%
  • +0.044EPA / dropback+0.083
  • -0.126EPA / rush-0.015
  • 8.2%Explosive rate9.7%
  • +4.61CPOE-0.01
  • 37.5%Third-down rate39.1%
  • 66.6%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
  • 1.82Points / drive2.10
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 10–7 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.4 points. ATL are 8-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14SEA @ ATL37–9SEA
2022 · W3ATL @ SEA27–23ATL
2020 · W1SEA @ ATL38–25SEA
2019 · W8SEA @ ATL27–20SEA
2017 · W11ATL @ SEA34–31ATL
2016 · playoffsSEA @ ATL20–36ATL
2016 · W6ATL @ SEA24–26SEA
2013 · W10SEA @ ATL33–10SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–ATL
SEAQ1 15:001249Field goal3–0
ATLQ1 10:05537Punt3–0
SEAQ1 7:36852Punt3–0
ATLQ1 2:371052Missed field goal3–0
SEAQ2 12:43556Touchdown10–0
ATLQ2 9:52970Touchdown10–7
SEAQ2 5:18429Punt10–7
ATLQ2 2:15431Punt10–7
SEAQ2 1:07678Touchdown17–7
ATLQ2 0:0400End of half17–7
ATLQ3 15:001479Touchdown17–14
SEAQ3 7:431043Touchdown24–14
ATLQ3 3:1832Punt24–14
SEAQ3 1:4465Punt24–14
ATLQ3 0:1081Opp touchdown31–14
ATLQ4 12:46743Turnover31–14
SEAQ4 10:55619Field goal34–14
ATLQ4 7:10518Turnover34–14
SEAQ4 5:5438Punt34–14
ATLQ4 3:37737End of half34–14

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith18/2820720
Jaxon Smith-Njigba1/13500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III14694.91
Geno Smith4153.80
Zach Charbonnet7142.00
Kenny McIntosh155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DK Metcalf47991
Noah Fant44650
Tyler Lockett46450
Kenneth Walker III22241
Jaxon Smith-Njigba3690
AJ Barner1150
Jake Bobo0100
Zach Charbonnet11-50

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins24/3523212
Michael Penix Jr.1/11400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bijan Robinson211034.91
Tyler Allgeier5367.20
Jase McClellan5173.40
Kirk Cousins1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kyle Pitts79650
Drake London68631
Darnell Mooney58460
Bijan Robinson35400
Casey Washington11140
Ray-Ray McCloud2490
Tyler Allgeier1190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

7.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.0%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.36
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+1.82