Closing spread
ATL -3
Total
51.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.013EPA / play+0.041
- 44.4%Success rate48.4%
- +0.044EPA / dropback+0.083
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.015
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.7%
- +4.61CPOE-0.01
- 37.5%Third-down rate39.1%
- 66.6%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
- 1.82Points / drive2.10
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–7 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.4 points. ATL are 8-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 18/28 | 207 | 2 | 0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 1/1 | 35 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 14 | 69 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Geno Smith | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kenny McIntosh | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 4 | 7 | 99 | 1 |
| Noah Fant | 4 | 4 | 65 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 4 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 2 | 2 | 24 | 1 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 3 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
| AJ Barner | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jake Bobo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 24/35 | 232 | 1 | 2 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | 1/1 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 21 | 103 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 5 | 36 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Jase McClellan | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts | 7 | 9 | 65 | 0 |
| Drake London | 6 | 8 | 63 | 1 |
| Darnell Mooney | 5 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 3 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Casey Washington | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.0%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.36
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.82