Closing spread
SEA -1
Total
43
Model margin
+2.1est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.002EPA / play+0.013
- 45.4%Success rate44.8%
- -0.001EPA / dropback+0.060
- +0.004EPA / rush-0.071
- 9.6%Explosive rate9.2%
- -0.74CPOE+5.46
- 41.9%Third-down rate37.4%
- 60.2%Red-zone TD rate54.3%
- 1.97Points / drive2.05
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–7 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.4 points. SEA are 9-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 13/20 | 229 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 17 | 141 | 8.3 | 1 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Avery Williams | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 7 | 4 | 0.6 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts | 5 | 8 | 87 | 0 |
| Drake London | 3 | 6 | 54 | 1 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 2 | 2 | 49 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 32/44 | 325 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashaad Penny | 14 | 66 | 4.7 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 9 | 11 | 76 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 5 | 12 | 64 | 1 |
| Colby Parkinson | 2 | 2 | 44 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 3 | 3 | 34 | 1 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 2 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 4 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Penny Hart | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Rashaad Penny | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.7%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.39
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.10