2022 · Week 3

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Marcus Mariota

27·23

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Geno Smith

Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf

Closing spread

SEA -1

Total

43

Model margin

+2.1est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.002EPA / play+0.013
  • 45.4%Success rate44.8%
  • -0.001EPA / dropback+0.060
  • +0.004EPA / rush-0.071
  • 9.6%Explosive rate9.2%
  • -0.74CPOE+5.46
  • 41.9%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 60.2%Red-zone TD rate54.3%
  • 1.97Points / drive2.05
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 10–7 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.4 points. SEA are 9-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14SEA @ ATL37–9SEA
2024 · W7SEA @ ATL34–14SEA
2020 · W1SEA @ ATL38–25SEA
2019 · W8SEA @ ATL27–20SEA
2017 · W11ATL @ SEA34–31ATL
2016 · playoffsSEA @ ATL20–36ATL
2016 · W6ATL @ SEA24–26SEA
2013 · W10SEA @ ATL33–10SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–SEA
SEAQ1 15:001061Field goal0–3
ATLQ1 10:19868Touchdown7–3
SEAQ1 7:10674Touchdown7–10
ATLQ1 4:12962Field goal10–10
SEAQ1 0:0735Punt10–10
ATLQ2 13:43989Touchdown17–10
SEAQ2 8:12975Touchdown17–17
ATLQ2 3:5832Punt17–17
SEAQ2 3:031167Field goal17–20
ATLQ2 0:0510Turnover17–20
ATLQ3 15:00929Field goal20–20
SEAQ3 10:001273Field goal20–23
ATLQ3 3:11575Touchdown27–23
SEAQ3 0:351030Punt27–23
ATLQ4 10:48953Turnover27–23
SEAQ4 5:121035Turnover27–23
ATLQ4 1:17210End of half27–23

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota13/2022911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cordarrelle Patterson171418.31
Tyler Allgeier6254.20
Avery Williams199.00
Marcus Mariota740.61

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kyle Pitts58870
Drake London36541
Olamide Zaccheaus22490
Anthony Firkser11220
Cordarrelle Patterson11120
Tyler Allgeier1150

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith32/4432521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashaad Penny14664.70
DeeJay Dallas3217.00
Kenneth Walker III3196.30
Travis Homer177.00
Geno Smith2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett911760
DK Metcalf512641
Colby Parkinson22440
Will Dissly33341
Marquise Goodwin25310
Noah Fant44270
DeeJay Dallas22170
Penny Hart11150
Kenneth Walker III33140
Rashaad Penny1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.7%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.39
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.10