2016 · Week 6

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

24·26

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 54°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

SEA -7

Total

45.5

Model margin

+1.3est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

4.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.196EPA / play+0.022
  • 49.5%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.323EPA / dropback+0.102
  • +0.001EPA / rush-0.126
  • 11.2%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +6.59CPOE+4.81
  • 43.7%Third-down rate38.7%
  • 68.3%Red-zone TD rate41.8%
  • 2.93Points / drive1.88
  • 1.1%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 10–7 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.4 points. SEA are 9-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14SEA @ ATL37–9SEA
2024 · W7SEA @ ATL34–14SEA
2022 · W3ATL @ SEA27–23ATL
2020 · W1SEA @ ATL38–25SEA
2019 · W8SEA @ ATL27–20SEA
2017 · W11ATL @ SEA34–31ATL
2016 · playoffsSEA @ ATL20–36ATL
2013 · W10SEA @ ATL33–10SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–SEA
SEAQ1 15:00636Punt0–0
ATLQ1 11:29729Punt0–0
SEAQ1 7:39724Punt0–0
ATLQ1 2:5930Turnover0–6
SEAQ1 2:0719Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 2:0243Punt0–7
SEAQ2 14:5033Punt0–7
ATLQ2 13:151152Field goal3–7
SEAQ2 8:38875Touchdown3–14
ATLQ2 4:323-5Punt3–14
SEAQ2 1:58422Field goal3–17
ATLQ2 0:4247End of half3–17
ATLQ3 15:00975Touchdown10–17
SEAQ3 11:0137Punt10–17
ATLQ3 9:34879Touchdown17–17
SEAQ3 6:11620Punt17–17
ATLQ3 3:44798Touchdown24–17
SEAQ3 0:17964Missed field goal24–17
ATLQ4 11:27410Punt24–17
SEAQ4 8:341053Touchdown24–23
ATLQ4 4:43314Turnover24–23
SEAQ4 3:48624Field goal24–26
ATLQ4 1:5740Turnover on downs24–26
SEAQ4 1:3000End of half24–26

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan27/4233531

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman12403.30
Tevin Coleman5102.00
Matt Ryan122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones791391
Levine Toilolo34691
Mohamed Sanu510471
Justin Hardy33300
Jacob Tamme23160
Devonta Freeman35100
Aldrick Robinson1280
Tevin Coleman1270
Taylor Gabriel1260
Patrick DiMarco1130

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson25/3727000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christine Michael18643.62
Russell Wilson671.20
Tyler Lockett122.00
Alex Collins122.01
C.J. Spiller1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Graham69890
C.J. Spiller36380
Jermaine Kearse35350
Doug Baldwin45310
Tyler Lockett35230
Christine Michael33190
Tanner McEvoy11170
Luke Willson1190
Alex Collins1190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

4.60%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.6%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.98
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+1.32