Closing spread
SEA -7
Total
45.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
4.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.196EPA / play+0.022
- 49.5%Success rate44.0%
- +0.323EPA / dropback+0.102
- +0.001EPA / rush-0.126
- 11.2%Explosive rate8.7%
- +6.59CPOE+4.81
- 43.7%Third-down rate38.7%
- 68.3%Red-zone TD rate41.8%
- 2.93Points / drive1.88
- 1.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–7 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.4 points. SEA are 9-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 27/42 | 335 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 12 | 40 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 7 | 9 | 139 | 1 |
| Levine Toilolo | 3 | 4 | 69 | 1 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 5 | 10 | 47 | 1 |
| Justin Hardy | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 3 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 25/37 | 270 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christine Michael | 18 | 64 | 3.6 | 2 |
| Russell Wilson | 6 | 7 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Alex Collins | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 |
| C.J. Spiller | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Graham | 6 | 9 | 89 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 3 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Christine Michael | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Tanner McEvoy | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Alex Collins | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
4.60%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.98
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.32