2017 · Week 11

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

34·31

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 45°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

SEA -1

Total

46

Model margin

+1.1est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.047EPA / play-0.023
  • 45.0%Success rate41.3%
  • +0.185EPA / dropback+0.060
  • -0.152EPA / rush-0.192
  • 9.7%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +2.96CPOE+4.52
  • 44.1%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 57.2%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
  • 2.02Points / drive1.68
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 10–7 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.4 points. SEA are 9-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14SEA @ ATL37–9SEA
2024 · W7SEA @ ATL34–14SEA
2022 · W3ATL @ SEA27–23ATL
2020 · W1SEA @ ATL38–25SEA
2019 · W8SEA @ ATL27–20SEA
2016 · playoffsSEA @ ATL20–36ATL
2016 · W6ATL @ SEA24–26SEA
2013 · W10SEA @ ATL33–10SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–SEA
ATLQ1 15:00827Touchdown7–0
SEAQ1 11:5929Turnover7–0
ATLQ1 11:03735Touchdown14–0
SEAQ1 7:521065Touchdown14–7
ATLQ1 2:55715Punt14–7
SEAQ2 14:512-13Opp touchdown21–7
SEAQ2 14:041159Field goal21–10
ATLQ2 8:1100Touchdown21–10
SEAQ2 8:08711Touchdown21–17
ATLQ2 5:21934Field goal24–17
SEAQ2 1:06738Turnover on downs24–17
ATLQ2 0:0400End of half24–17
SEAQ3 15:00729Field goal24–20
ATLQ3 11:21871Touchdown31–20
SEAQ3 7:241157Field goal31–23
ATLQ3 1:40941Punt31–23
SEAQ4 10:1539Punt31–23
ATLQ4 8:57956Field goal34–23
SEAQ4 3:49560Touchdown34–31
ATLQ4 3:0032Punt34–31
SEAQ4 1:46836Missed field goal34–31
ATLQ4 0:0200End of half34–31

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan19/2719520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tevin Coleman20432.11
Terron Ward6315.20
Matt Ryan3124.00
Mohamed Sanu133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones510710
Mohamed Sanu33341
Levine Toilolo22311
Justin Hardy34270
Tevin Coleman12150
Terron Ward11110
Taylor Gabriel2270
Marvin Hall0100
Austin Hooper22-10

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson26/4225821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Russell Wilson78612.31
J.D. McKissic7304.30
Mike Davis6183.00
Eddie Lacy320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Graham711581
Paul Richardson58560
Mike Davis22410
Doug Baldwin26401
Tyler Lockett45370
J.D. McKissic56230
Luke Willson22-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.2%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.0%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.91
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+1.07