Closing spread
SEA -1
Total
46
Model margin
+1.1est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.047EPA / play-0.023
- 45.0%Success rate41.3%
- +0.185EPA / dropback+0.060
- -0.152EPA / rush-0.192
- 9.7%Explosive rate9.4%
- +2.96CPOE+4.52
- 44.1%Third-down rate37.4%
- 57.2%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
- 2.02Points / drive1.68
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–7 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.4 points. SEA are 9-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 19/27 | 195 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tevin Coleman | 20 | 43 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Terron Ward | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 5 | 10 | 71 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 3 | 3 | 34 | 1 |
| Levine Toilolo | 2 | 2 | 31 | 1 |
| Justin Hardy | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Terron Ward | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Marvin Hall | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 26/42 | 258 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 7 | 86 | 12.3 | 1 |
| J.D. McKissic | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Graham | 7 | 11 | 58 | 1 |
| Paul Richardson | 5 | 8 | 56 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 2 | 2 | 41 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 2 | 6 | 40 | 1 |
| Tyler Lockett | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 5 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.0%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.91
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+1.07