Closing spread
SEA -7
Total
44.5
Model margin
-0.5est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
4.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.036EPA / play-0.008
- 46.6%Success rate44.5%
- +0.137EPA / dropback+0.041
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.073
- 10.7%Explosive rate9.2%
- +4.54CPOE-3.36
- 40.9%Third-down rate33.5%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
- 2.22Points / drive1.82
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–7 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.4 points. ATL are 8-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 20/30 | 249 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Charbonnet | 7 | 46 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Velus Jones Jr. | 4 | 32 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 10 | 29 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Drew Lock | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 7 | 10 | 92 | 2 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 4 | 5 | 67 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 2 | 3 | 35 | 1 |
| AJ Barner | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Cody White | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Elijah Arroyo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 15/30 | 162 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 20 | 86 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 11 | 34 | 3.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts | 6 | 10 | 90 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Dylan Drummond | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Deven Thompkins | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| David Sills | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
4.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.7%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.08
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.15
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.52