2025 · Week 14

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Sam Darnold

37·9

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Kirk Cousins

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

SEA -7

Total

44.5

Model margin

-0.5est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

4.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapFalcons
  • +0.036EPA / play-0.008
  • 46.6%Success rate44.5%
  • +0.137EPA / dropback+0.041
  • -0.076EPA / rush-0.073
  • 10.7%Explosive rate9.2%
  • +4.54CPOE-3.36
  • 40.9%Third-down rate33.5%
  • 57.0%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
  • 2.22Points / drive1.82
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 10–7 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.4 points. ATL are 8-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W7SEA @ ATL34–14SEA
2022 · W3ATL @ SEA27–23ATL
2020 · W1SEA @ ATL38–25SEA
2019 · W8SEA @ ATL27–20SEA
2017 · W11ATL @ SEA34–31ATL
2016 · playoffsSEA @ ATL20–36ATL
2016 · W6ATL @ SEA24–26SEA
2013 · W10SEA @ ATL33–10SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–ATL
ATLQ1 15:00727Punt0–0
SEAQ1 11:343-10Punt0–0
ATLQ1 9:18427Field goal0–3
SEAQ1 7:141260Field goal3–3
ATLQ1 0:49716Punt3–3
SEAQ2 11:23414Turnover3–3
ATLQ2 9:2948Missed field goal3–3
SEAQ2 7:3232Punt3–3
ATLQ2 5:491073Field goal3–6
SEAQ2 1:01645Field goal12–6
SEAQ3 15:0000Touchdown13–6
ATLQ3 14:48647Turnover13–6
SEAQ3 11:18888Touchdown20–6
ATLQ3 6:1637Turnover20–6
SEAQ3 4:54528Field goal23–6
ATLQ3 2:39759Field goal23–9
SEAQ4 14:57660Touchdown30–9
ATLQ4 12:1333Turnover30–9
SEAQ4 11:29635Touchdown37–9
ATLQ4 8:27125Turnover on downs37–9
SEAQ4 5:07843Punt37–9
ATLQ4 0:2112End of half37–9

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold20/3024931

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zach Charbonnet7466.60
Velus Jones Jr.4328.00
Kenneth Walker III10292.90
Sam Darnold3237.70
Drew Lock100.00
Jaxon Smith-Njigba1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba710922
Rashid Shaheed45670
Cooper Kupp23351
AJ Barner34270
Zach Charbonnet23200
Cody White1190
Elijah Arroyo0100
Kenneth Walker III13-10

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins15/3016202

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bijan Robinson20864.30
Tyler Allgeier11343.10

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kyle Pitts610900
Tyler Allgeier22330
Dylan Drummond35210
Bijan Robinson2280
Darnell Mooney1460
Deven Thompkins1140
David Sills0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

4.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.7%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.08
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.15
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.52