2016 · DIV

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

20·36

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -6.5

Total

51

Model margin

+3.2est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Falcons

Nothing filed.

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapFalcons
  • +0.022EPA / play+0.196
  • 44.0%Success rate49.5%
  • +0.102EPA / dropback+0.323
  • -0.126EPA / rush+0.001
  • 8.7%Explosive rate11.2%
  • +4.81CPOE+6.59
  • 38.7%Third-down rate43.7%
  • 41.8%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
  • 1.88Points / drive2.93
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 10–7 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.4 points. ATL are 8-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14SEA @ ATL37–9SEA
2024 · W7SEA @ ATL34–14SEA
2022 · W3ATL @ SEA27–23ATL
2020 · W1SEA @ ATL38–25SEA
2019 · W8SEA @ ATL27–20SEA
2017 · W11ATL @ SEA34–31ATL
2016 · W6ATL @ SEA24–26SEA
2013 · W10SEA @ ATL33–10SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–ATL
SEAQ1 15:001489Touchdown7–0
ATLQ1 6:261470Touchdown7–7
SEAQ2 14:14540Field goal10–7
ATLQ2 11:2032Punt10–7
SEAQ2 10:132-7Safety10–9
ATLQ2 9:22440Field goal10–12
SEAQ2 6:0639Punt10–12
ATLQ2 3:48999Touchdown10–19
SEAQ2 0:53214End of half10–19
ATLQ3 15:001375Touchdown10–26
SEAQ3 9:121375Field goal13–26
ATLQ3 3:03662Field goal13–29
SEAQ4 14:57311Punt13–29
ATLQ4 13:51614Punt13–29
SEAQ4 11:17731Turnover13–29
ATLQ4 8:16846Touchdown13–36
SEAQ4 3:40131Touchdown20–36
ATLQ4 3:2144Punt20–36
SEAQ4 2:51416Turnover20–36
ATLQ4 2:15113End of half20–36

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson17/3022522

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Russell Wilson6498.20
Thomas Rawls11343.10
Alex Collins2147.00
J.D. McKissic133.00
Doug Baldwin111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Paul Richardson45830
Doug Baldwin59801
Jimmy Graham33221
Alex Collins24170
Jermaine Kearse1380
J.D. McKissic1150
Luke Willson0100
Tanner McEvoy0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan26/3733830

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tevin Coleman11575.20
Devonta Freeman14453.21
Justin Hardy100.00
Matt Ryan3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Devonta Freeman45800
Taylor Gabriel46710
Julio Jones68671
Mohamed Sanu45441
Levine Toilolo24260
Tevin Coleman34221
Justin Hardy22180
Austin Hooper11100
Aldrick Robinson0100
Patrick DiMarco0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.9%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

4.81%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.7%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.98
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.48
  • Expected margin+3.20