Closing spread
ATL -6.5
Total
51
Model margin
+3.2est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.022EPA / play+0.196
- 44.0%Success rate49.5%
- +0.102EPA / dropback+0.323
- -0.126EPA / rush+0.001
- 8.7%Explosive rate11.2%
- +4.81CPOE+6.59
- 38.7%Third-down rate43.7%
- 41.8%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
- 1.88Points / drive2.93
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–7 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.4 points. ATL are 8-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 17/30 | 225 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 6 | 49 | 8.2 | 0 |
| Thomas Rawls | 11 | 34 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Alex Collins | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Richardson | 4 | 5 | 83 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 5 | 9 | 80 | 1 |
| Jimmy Graham | 3 | 3 | 22 | 1 |
| Alex Collins | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tanner McEvoy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 26/37 | 338 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tevin Coleman | 11 | 57 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 14 | 45 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Justin Hardy | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 4 | 5 | 80 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 4 | 6 | 71 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 6 | 8 | 67 | 1 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 4 | 5 | 44 | 1 |
| Levine Toilolo | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 3 | 4 | 22 | 1 |
| Justin Hardy | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
4.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.98
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+3.20