Closing spread
BAL -3.5
Total
36
Model margin
+0.5est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.109EPA / play-0.113
- 38.7%Success rate40.6%
- -0.061EPA / dropback-0.080
- -0.179EPA / rush-0.171
- 7.2%Explosive rate6.1%
- 39.5%Third-down rate34.5%
- 39.7%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
- 1.20Points / drive1.17
- 3.2%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.088EPA / play allowed+0.045
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 12–9 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35 points. TEN are 8-12-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Wright | 25/40 | 212 | 1 | 1 |
| Randy Hymes | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 10 | 9 | 0.9 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 19/36 | 195 | 1 | 0 |
| Drew Bennett | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 18 | 62 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 8 | 33 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.4%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.33
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.25
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.48