2005 · Week 2

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Anthony Wright

10·25

Titans

Tennessee

QB Steve McNair

The Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

BAL -3.5

Total

36

Model margin

+0.5est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapTitans
  • -0.109EPA / play-0.113
  • 38.7%Success rate40.6%
  • -0.061EPA / dropback-0.080
  • -0.179EPA / rush-0.171
  • 7.2%Explosive rate6.1%
  • 39.5%Third-down rate34.5%
  • 39.7%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
  • 1.20Points / drive1.17
  • 3.2%Turnover rate2.5%
  • -0.088EPA / play allowed+0.045

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 13–9 since 1999

BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 35.3 points. TEN are 9-12-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4TEN @ BAL18–24BAL
2023 · W6BAL @ TEN24–16BAL
2020 · playoffsBAL @ TEN20–13BAL
2020 · W11TEN @ BAL30–24TEN
2019 · playoffsTEN @ BAL28–12TEN
2018 · W6BAL @ TEN21–0BAL
2017 · W9BAL @ TEN20–23TEN
2014 · W10TEN @ BAL7–21BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–TEN
BALQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
TENQ1 12:54730Punt0–0
BALQ1 9:2925Turnover0–0
TENQ1 8:54424Touchdown0–7
BALQ1 7:50518Punt0–7
TENQ1 5:541252Field goal0–10
BALQ2 13:0837Punt0–10
TENQ2 11:02754Turnover0–10
BALQ2 7:213-3Punt0–10
TENQ2 5:33539Punt0–10
BALQ2 3:183-2Punt0–10
TENQ2 2:1133Punt0–10
BALQ2 1:453-2Punt0–10
TENQ2 0:52326Field goal0–13
BALQ2 0:0100End of half0–13
TENQ3 15:0036Punt0–13
BALQ3 13:24974Field goal3–13
TENQ3 8:5431Field goal3–16
BALQ3 7:10611Punt3–16
TENQ3 4:4735Punt3–16
BALQ3 3:4039Punt3–16
TENQ3 2:1946Punt3–16
BALQ3 0:443-9Punt3–16
TENQ3 0:03617Punt3–16
BALQ4 12:0420Opp touchdown3–23
BALQ4 11:531682Touchdown10–23
TENQ4 6:2437Punt10–23
BALQ4 4:303-8Safety10–25
TENQ4 2:43322End of half10–25

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Anthony Wright25/4021211
Randy Hymes0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis1090.90
Chester Taylor351.70

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve McNair19/3619510
Drew Bennett0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Henry18623.40
Chris Brown8334.10
Steve McNair320.70

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.30%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.4%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.33
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.25
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.48