Closing spread
IND -9
Total
46
Model margin
+2.2est.
IND perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play+0.188
- 42.5%Success rate51.2%
- +0.113EPA / dropback+0.339
- -0.079EPA / rush-0.007
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.0%
- 41.0%Third-down rate50.1%
- 64.4%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
- 1.68Points / drive2.60
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.5%
- -0.066EPA / play allowed-0.061
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–23 since 1999
JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.4 points. IND are 17-32-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 54 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 9:16 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 6:09 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 5:09 | 7 | 54 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 0:40 | 3 | 19 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q2 14:49 | 7 | 32 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q2 10:40 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q2 9:36 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q2 6:28 | 6 | 26 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q2 4:31 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q2 2:21 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q2 1:31 | 5 | 32 | End of half | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q3 12:43 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q3 10:39 | 6 | 23 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| IND | Q3 6:59 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 3–0 |
| JAX | Q3 4:39 | 4 | 48 | Punt | 3–0 |
| IND | Q3 2:26 | 17 | 88 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| JAX | Q4 8:27 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–7 |
| IND | Q4 5:41 | 9 | 29 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| JAX | Q4 1:50 | 8 | 50 | End of half | 3–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 16/29 | 198 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 16 | 81 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Matt Jones | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 13/28 | 122 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 27 | 128 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Ran Carthon | 6 | 5 | 0.8 | 1 |
| James Mungro | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
1.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.9%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.39
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.18