2023 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

31·21

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Anthony Richardson

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed

Closing spread

JAX -4

Total

45.5

Model margin

+1.3est.

IND perspective

Push chance

2.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapColts
  • -0.032EPA / play-0.025
  • 43.1%Success rate41.5%
  • +0.053EPA / dropback+0.030
  • -0.192EPA / rush-0.108
  • 7.1%Explosive rate8.6%
  • +1.62CPOE-3.92
  • 38.5%Third-down rate34.4%
  • 56.5%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 1.84Points / drive1.78
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 27–22 since 1999

JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. IND are 17-31-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17JAX @ IND23–17JAX
2025 · W14IND @ JAX19–36JAX
2024 · W18JAX @ IND23–26IND
2024 · W5IND @ JAX34–37JAX
2023 · W6IND @ JAX20–37JAX
2022 · W6JAX @ IND27–34IND
2022 · W2IND @ JAX0–24JAX
2021 · W18IND @ JAX11–26JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–IND
INDQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
JAXQ1 13:3536Punt0–0
INDQ1 12:4239Punt0–0
JAXQ1 10:25961Touchdown7–0
INDQ1 5:181175Touchdown7–7
JAXQ2 14:57428Turnover7–7
INDQ2 13:0849Turnover on downs7–7
JAXQ2 11:5534Punt7–7
INDQ2 10:16411Turnover on downs7–7
JAXQ2 8:51757Touchdown14–7
INDQ2 4:56326Turnover14–7
JAXQ2 4:09625Punt14–7
INDQ2 1:0336End of half14–7
JAXQ3 15:003-1Punt14–7
INDQ3 14:00763Touchdown14–14
JAXQ3 11:25748Field goal17–14
INDQ3 8:313-4Punt17–14
JAXQ3 6:2849Turnover on downs17–14
INDQ3 4:2547Turnover17–14
JAXQ3 3:102-1Opp touchdown17–21
JAXQ3 2:2737Punt17–21
INDQ3 1:0347Punt17–21
JAXQ4 14:4749Turnover on downs17–21
INDQ4 12:524-3Punt17–21
JAXQ4 10:461046Touchdown24–21
INDQ4 5:1420Turnover24–21
JAXQ4 5:00344Touchdown31–21
INDQ4 4:081774Turnover on downs31–21
JAXQ4 0:4511End of half31–21

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence24/3224121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne18774.31
Trevor Lawrence7213.00
Tank Bigsby7131.91
Jamal Agnew2-2-1.00
D'Ernest Johnson1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Ridley8111011
Zay Jones57551
Evan Engram55490
Travis Etienne55270
Christian Kirk1390
Tank Bigsby0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Anthony Richardson24/3722311
Gardner Minshew0/2000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Anthony Richardson10404.01
Deon Jackson13141.10
Jake Funk2105.00
Evan Hull111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Pittman811971
Kylen Granson46390
Josh Downs37300
Andrew Ogletree12200
Deon Jackson56140
Jake Funk11120
Evan Hull1160
Alec Pierce1350
Mo Alie-Cox0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -44.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.38%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.7%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.33
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.03
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.34