Closing spread
JAX -4
Total
45.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.032EPA / play-0.025
- 43.1%Success rate41.5%
- +0.053EPA / dropback+0.030
- -0.192EPA / rush-0.108
- 7.1%Explosive rate8.6%
- +1.62CPOE-3.92
- 38.5%Third-down rate34.4%
- 56.5%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 1.84Points / drive1.78
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–22 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. IND are 17-31-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 24/32 | 241 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 18 | 77 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Jamal Agnew | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Ridley | 8 | 11 | 101 | 1 |
| Zay Jones | 5 | 7 | 55 | 1 |
| Evan Engram | 5 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 5 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Richardson | 24/37 | 223 | 1 | 1 |
| Gardner Minshew | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Richardson | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Deon Jackson | 13 | 14 | 1.1 | 0 |
| Jake Funk | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Evan Hull | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 8 | 11 | 97 | 1 |
| Kylen Granson | 4 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Josh Downs | 3 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Andrew Ogletree | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Deon Jackson | 5 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Jake Funk | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Evan Hull | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Alec Pierce | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.33
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.03
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.34