Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+25.1est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Coltsedge mapJaguars
- -0.225EPA / play+0.310
- 42.6%Success rate59.3%
- -0.409EPA / dropback+0.731
- +0.116EPA / rush-0.053
- 13.0%Explosive rate16.7%
- -5.06CPOE+22.32
- 30.0%Third-down rate55.6%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 1.99Points / drive3.76
- 3.7%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–22 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. JAX are 31-17-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+22.29
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+25.07