2026 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Daniel Jones

7·42

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

EverBank Stadium · outdoors · grass

Final · play by play

How it finished

Final

A.Richardson kneels to IND 28 for -1 yards.

Last play · Colts · Rush

Win probability · ESPN's model, not ours

0% ColtsJaguars 100%

Scoring

  1. Q1 5:30Jaguars Brian Thomas Jr. 12 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)0-7
  2. Q2 7:14Jaguars Nate Boerkircher 31 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)0-14
  3. Q2 1:51Jaguars Bhayshul Tuten 39 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)0-21
  4. Q2 0:10Jaguars Rayuan Lane III 92 Yd Interception Return (Cam Little Kick)0-28
  5. Q3 9:08Jaguars Chris Rodriguez Jr. 28 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)0-35
  6. Q3 3:59Colts Josh Downs 6 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Spencer Shrader Kick)7-35
  7. Q3 0:00Jaguars Bhayshul Tuten 25 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)7-42

Every drive · newest first

Q4 2:16Colts 4 plays, 22 yards, 2:16 · from IND 6End of Game
  1. Q4 0:00END GAME
  2. 1st & 10A.Richardson kneels to IND 28 for -1 yards.
  3. 2nd & 2D.Giddens left end to IND 29 for 3 yards (M.Dickerson).
  4. 1st & 10D.Giddens right guard to IND 26 for 8 yards (Bry.Thomas).
  5. 1st & 10Two-Minute Warning
  6. 1st & 10D.Giddens left tackle to IND 18 for 12 yards (R.Lane; J.Huskey).
Q4 4:34Jaguars 3 plays, 5 yards, 2:18 · from JAX 42Punt
  1. 4th & 5L.Cooke punts 47 yards to IND 6, Center-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.
  2. 3rd & 6A.Abdullah left tackle to JAX 47 for 1 yard (H.Wohler).
  3. 3rd & 1(Shotgun) PENALTY on JAX-D.Faalele, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at IND 49 - No Play.
  4. 2nd & 1A.Abdullah up the middle to IND 49 for no gain (H.Wohler).
  5. 1st & 10A.Abdullah up the middle to IND 49 for 9 yards (K.Harris).
Q4 7:26Colts 4 plays, 10 yards, 2:52 · from IND 3Punt
  1. 4th & 12R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to JAX 36, Center-L.Rhodes. J.Cameron to JAX 42 for 6 yards (C.Curry; J.Edwards).
  2. 3rd & 2(Shotgun) A.Richardson sacked at IND 13 for -10 yards (J.Huskey).
  3. 2nd & 9(Shotgun) D.Giddens up the middle to IND 23 for 7 yards (Jay.Jones; J.Huskey).
  4. 1st & 10D.Giddens up the middle to IND 16 for 1 yard (J.Tavai; R.Orhorhoro).
  5. 1st & 10Timeout #2 by JAX at 06:45.
  6. 1st & 10D.Giddens right end ran ob at IND 15 for 12 yards (J.Mcleod).
Q4 9:17Jaguars 3 plays, -1 yard, 1:51 · from IND 42Punt
  1. 4th & 11L.Cooke punts 40 yards to IND 3, Center-R.Matiscik, fair catch by K.Gushiken.
  2. 3rd & 11(Shotgun) Q.Ewers pass incomplete short middle to L.Allen.
  3. 2nd & 12A.Abdullah left tackle to IND 43 for 1 yard (C.Allen).
  4. 2nd & 2A.Abdullah up the middle to IND 31 for 3 yards (C.Allen).PENALTY on JAX-E.Pregnon, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 34 - No Play.
  5. 1st & 10Q.Ewers pass short right to T.Koziol to IND 34 for 8 yards (C.Curry).
Q4 11:45Colts 4 plays, 9 yards, 2:28 · from IND 34Downs
  1. 4th & 6(Shotgun) A.Richardson pass short left to K.Allen to IND 43 for 5 yards (M.Brown).
  2. 4th & 1(Shotgun) A.Richardson pass short right to K.Allen to JAX 39 for 18 yards (Jay.Jones; R.Lane).PENALTY on IND-T.Bortolini, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at IND 43 - No Play.
  3. 3rd & 6(Shotgun) A.Richardson scrambles right tackle pushed ob at IND 43 for 5 yards (Bry.Thomas).Indianapolis challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)
  4. 2nd & 9A.Richardson pass short left to T.Warren to IND 38 for 3 yards (J.Mcleod).
  5. 1st & 10(Shotgun) S.McGowan right guard to IND 35 for 1 yard (J.Tavai).
Q4 13:21Jaguars 3 plays, -3 yards, 1:36 · from JAX 28Punt
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 11:45.
  2. 4th & 13L.Cooke punts 51 yards to IND 24, Center-R.Matiscik, fair catch by J.Downs.PENALTY on JAX-R.Matiscik, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 24.
  3. 3rd & 16(Shotgun) A.Abdullah up the middle to JAX 25 for 3 yards (C.Curry).
  4. 2nd & 16(Shotgun) Q.Ewers pass incomplete deep left to J.Cameron (A.Gardner).
  5. 1st & 15A.Abdullah left tackle to JAX 22 for -1 yards (A.Adebawore, C.Lawson).
  6. 1st & 10PENALTY on JAX-W.Little, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at JAX 28 - No Play.
Q4 15:00Colts 5 plays, 31 yards, 1:39 · from IND 35Interception
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 13:21.
  2. 2nd & 10(Shotgun) D.Jones pass short middle intended for T.Warren INTERCEPTED by B.Combs [A.Armstead] at JAX 19. B.Combs to JAX 28 for 9 yards (S.McGowan).
  3. 1st & 10(No Huddle, Shotgun) D.Jones pass incomplete short right to L.Treadwell (R.Lane) [R.Lane].Jacksonville challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
  4. 1st & 10(Shotgun) D.Jones pass deep left to K.Allen ran ob at JAX 34 for 18 yards.
  5. 2nd & 2(Shotgun) D.Jones pass short left to K.Allen pushed ob at IND 48 for 5 yards (R.Lane).
  6. 1st & 10(Shotgun) D.Jones pass short left to J.Downs pushed ob at IND 43 for 8 yards (M.Brown).
  7. Q4 15:00C.Little kicks 65 yards from JAX 35 to end zone, Touchback to the IND 35.
Q3 3:59Jaguars 6 plays, 83 yards, 3:59 · from JAX 17Touchdown
  1. Q3 0:00END QUARTER 3
  2. 1st & 10(Shotgun) T.Lawrence pass short right to B.Tuten for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Matiscik, Holder-L.Cooke.
  3. 1st & 10J.Monheim reported in as eligible. T.Lawrence pass short right to C.Rodriguez to IND 25 for 17 yards (A.Davis-Gaither).
  4. 3rd & 4(Shotgun) C.Rodriguez left tackle to IND 42 for 5 yards (J.Carlies; A.Ajiake).
  5. 2nd & 7C.Rodriguez right guard to IND 47 for 3 yards (A.Ajiake; C.Ward).
  6. 1st & 10B.Tuten left end pushed ob at 50 for 3 yards (C.Allen).
  7. 1st & 10T.Lawrence pass short left to B.Tuten to JAX 47 for 30 yards (C.Curry).
  8. Q3 3:59S.Shrader kicks 62 yards from IND 35 to JAX 3. A.Abdullah to JAX 30 for 27 yards (A.Dulin).PENALTY on JAX-Q.Morris, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 27.
Q3 9:08Colts 10 plays, 65 yards, 5:09 · from IND 35Touchdown
  1. Q3 3:59Official Timeout at 03:59.
  2. 3rd & Goal(Shotgun) D.Jones pass short left to J.Downs for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. S.Shrader extra point is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.
  3. 2nd & Goal(Shotgun) J.Taylor right end to JAX 6 for -2 yards (D.Striggow).
  4. 2nd & 4Timeout #1 by IND at 04:48.
  5. 1st & GoalJ.Taylor left end to JAX 4 for -1 yards (F.Oluokun, D.Gardeck).
  6. 1st & 10(Shotgun) S.McGowan up the middle to JAX 3 for 16 yards (K.Merriweather; R.Lane).
  7. 1st & 10(Shotgun) D.Jones pass short left to T.Warren to JAX 19 for 10 yards (V.Miller).
  8. 2nd & 7(Shotgun) D.Jones pass short left to J.Taylor to JAX 29 for 15 yards (R.Orhorhoro).
  9. 1st & 10A.Dulin left end pushed ob at JAX 44 for 3 yards (T.Hunter).
  10. 3rd & 10(Shotgun) D.Jones pass deep middle to L.Treadwell to JAX 47 for 18 yards (T.Hunter).
  11. 2nd & 10(Shotgun) D.Jones pass incomplete short left to T.Warren (D.Gardeck).
  12. 1st & 10D.Jones pass incomplete deep left to J.Downs.
  13. Q3 9:08C.Little kicks 65 yards from JAX 35 to end zone, Touchback to the IND 35.
Q3 10:30Jaguars 3 plays, 37 yards, 1:22 · from IND 37Touchdown
  1. Q3 9:08Official Timeout at 09:08.
  2. 3rd & 1(Shotgun) C.Rodriguez up the middle for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Matiscik, Holder-L.Cooke.
  3. 2nd & 5(Shotgun) B.Tuten right guard to IND 28 for 4 yards (A.Haulcy).
  4. 1st & 10T.Lawrence scrambles right end pushed ob at IND 32 for 5 yards (A.Davis-Gaither).
Q3 12:38Colts 4 plays, 3 yards, 2:08 · from IND 35Downs
  1. 4th & 3(Shotgun) D.Jones sacked at IND 38 for -4 yards (sack split by A.Armstead and J.Hines-Allen).
  2. 3rd & 4(Shotgun) D.Jones pass short left to T.Warren to IND 42 for 1 yard (A.Armstead; J.Lewis) [D.Gardeck].
  3. 2nd & 6(Shotgun) D.Jones pass short right to D.Burks to IND 41 for 2 yards (T.Walker; F.Oluokun). JAX-T.Walker was injured during the play.
  4. 1st & 10J.Taylor up the middle to IND 39 for 4 yards (K.Merriweather; M.Dickerson).
Q3 15:00Jaguars 3 plays, -11 yards, 2:22 · from JAX 22Punt
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 12:38.
  2. 4th & 21L.Cooke punts 54 yards to IND 35, Center-R.Matiscik, fair catch by J.Downs.
  3. 3rd & 6(Shotgun) T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 11 for -15 yards (L.Latu).
  4. 2nd & 7C.Rodriguez right end to JAX 26 for 1 yard (G.Stewart).
  5. 1st & 10B.Tuten left tackle to JAX 25 for 3 yards (C.Allen; A.Davis-Gaither).
  6. Q3 15:00S.Shrader kicks 61 yards from IND 35 to JAX 4. J.Cameron to JAX 22 for 18 yards (C.Curry).
Q2 0:10Colts 1 play, -1 yard, 0:10 · from IND 32End of Half
  1. Q2 0:00END QUARTER 2
  2. 1st & 10D.Jones kneels to IND 31 for -1 yards.
  3. Q2 0:10C.Little kicks 62 yards from JAX 35 to IND 3. D.Burks to IND 32 for 29 yards (B.Combs).
Q2 0:55Colts 3 plays, 14 yards, 0:45 · from JAX 31Interception Touchdown
  1. 1st & 10(Shotgun) D.Jones pass short left intended for T.Warren INTERCEPTED by R.Lane [R.Orhorhoro] at JAX 8. R.Lane for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Matiscik, Holder-L.Cooke.
  2. 1st & 10Timeout #1 by IND at 00:25.
  3. 2nd & 5(No Huddle, Shotgun) D.Jones pass short left to K.Allen to JAX 17 for 9 yards (F.Oluokun).
  4. 1st & 10(Shotgun) D.Jones pass short left to J.Downs to JAX 26 for 5 yards (F.Oluokun).
Q2 1:03Jaguars 1 play, -10 yards, 0:08 · from JAX 48Fumble
  1. 1st & 10(Shotgun) T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 40 for -8 yards (J.Tuimoloau). FUMBLES (J.Tuimoloau) [J.Tuimoloau], RECOVERED by IND-C.Curry at JAX 38. C.Curry to JAX 31 for 7 yards (C.Van Lanen).
Q2 1:51Colts 3 plays, -2 yards, 0:48 · from IND 15Punt
  1. 4th & 12R.Sanchez punts 45 yards to JAX 42, Center-L.Rhodes. T.Hunter to JAX 43 for 1 yard (A.Dulin).PENALTY on IND-A.Dulin, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at JAX 43.
  2. 3rd & 12(Shotgun) D.Jones pass incomplete short middle to J.Taylor.
  3. 2nd & 12(No Huddle, Shotgun) D.Jones pass incomplete short middle to T.Warren (B.Combs).
  4. 1st & 10(Shotgun) J.Taylor right end to IND 13 for -2 yards (J.Hines-Allen).
  5. Q2 1:51C.Little kicks 65 yards from JAX 35 to IND 0. S.McGowan pushed ob at IND 45 for 45 yards (Jay.Jones).PENALTY on IND-A.Ogletree, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 25.
Q2 4:44Jaguars 7 plays, 80 yards, 2:53 · from JAX 20Touchdown
  1. Q2 1:51Official Timeout at 01:51.
  2. 1st & 10B.Tuten right tackle for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Matiscik, Holder-L.Cooke.
  3. 1st & 10Two-Minute Warning
  4. 1st & 10(Shotgun) T.Lawrence pass short left to J.Meyers pushed ob at IND 39 for 10 yards (A.Gardner).
  5. 2nd & 7T.Lawrence scrambles right end pushed ob at JAX 46 for 3 yards (G.Stewart).PENALTY on IND-C.Ward, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at JAX 46.
  6. 1st & 10(Shotgun) B.Tuten left guard to JAX 43 for 3 yards (A.Haulcy).
  7. 3rd & 6(Shotgun) T.Lawrence pass short left to P.Washington to JAX 40 for 16 yards (C.Ward) [L.Latu].
  8. 2nd & 6T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to P.Washington (A.Gardner).
  9. 1st & 10B.Tuten left end to JAX 24 for 4 yards (A.Davis-Gaither; A.Adebawore).
Q2 7:14Colts 4 plays, 11 yards, 2:30 · from IND 32Punt
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 04:44.
  2. 4th & 5R.Sanchez punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-L.Rhodes, Touchback.
  3. 4th & 1(Run formation) PENALTY on IND-M.Goncalves, False Start, 4 yards, enforced at IND 47 - No Play.
  4. 3rd & 1D.Jones up the middle to IND 47 for no gain (M.Dickerson). (Virtual Measurement).
  5. 2nd & 5(Shotgun) D.Jones pass short right to J.Downs pushed ob at IND 47 for 4 yards (Jar.Jones).
  6. 1st & 10S.McGowan up the middle to IND 43 for 5 yards (A.Armstead).
  7. 1st & 10(Shotgun) J.Taylor left guard to IND 33 for 1 yard (T.Walker).PENALTY on JAX-Bry.Thomas, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at IND 33.
  8. Q2 7:14C.Little kicks 60 yards from JAX 35 to IND 5. S.McGowan to IND 32 for 27 yards (B.Combs).
Q2 9:05Jaguars 4 plays, 50 yards, 1:51 · from 50Touchdown
  1. Q2 7:14Official Timeout at 07:14.
  2. 1st & 10T.Lawrence pass deep left to N.Boerkircher for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Matiscik, Holder-L.Cooke.
  3. 3rd & 4(Shotgun) B.Tuten right end pushed ob at IND 36 for 8 yards (A.Ajiake).PENALTY on IND-A.Adebawore, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at IND 36.
  4. 2nd & 10J.Monheim reported in as eligible. B.Tuten left end to IND 44 for 6 yards (A.Ajiake).
  5. 1st & 10(Shotgun) B.Tuten up the middle to 50 for no gain (G.Stewart).
Q2 10:43Colts 4 plays, 8 yards, 1:38 · from IND 42Fumble
  1. 1st & 10(Shotgun) J.Taylor FUMBLES (Aborted) at JAX 49, RECOVERED by JAX-Bry.Thomas at 50. JAX-D.Hamilton was injured during the play.
  2. 3rd & 7(Shotgun) D.Jones pass short left to K.Allen to JAX 41 for 14 yards (M.Brown) [K.Merriweather].
  3. 2nd & 10(Shotgun) D.Jones pass short right to J.Taylor to IND 45 for 3 yards (F.Oluokun; T.Hunter).
  4. 1st & 10(Shotgun) D.Jones pass incomplete short left to T.Warren (R.Lane).
Q2 12:39Jaguars 3 plays, 5 yards, 1:56 · from JAX 18Punt
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 10:43.
  2. 4th & 5L.Cooke punts 55 yards to IND 22, Center-R.Matiscik. J.Downs to IND 42 for 20 yards (R.Lane; D.Gardeck).
  3. 3rd & 14(Shotgun) T.Lawrence pass short left to B.Strange to JAX 23 for 9 yards (J.Carlies; A.Ajiake).
  4. 2nd & 20(Shotgun) B.Tuten up the middle to JAX 14 for 6 yards (A.Davis-Gaither; C.Curry).Penalty on JAX-W.Little, Offensive Holding, declined.
  5. 1st & 10W.Milum reported in as eligible. T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 8 for -10 yards (C.Allen).
Q1 1:11Colts 7 plays, 43 yards, 3:32 · from IND 6Punt
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 12:39.
  2. 4th & 7R.Sanchez punts 33 yards to JAX 18, Center-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-L.Rhodes.
  3. 3rd & 20(Shotgun) D.Jones pass short middle to J.Taylor to IND 49 for 13 yards (F.Oluokun; J.Lewis).
  4. 3rd & 15(Shotgun) PENALTY on IND-B.Raimann, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at IND 41 - No Play.
  5. 3rd & 10(Shotgun) PENALTY on IND-T.Bortolini, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at IND 46 - No Play.
  6. 2nd & 10(Shotgun) D.Jones pass incomplete short left to T.Warren.
  7. 1st & 10D.Jones sacked ob at IND 46 for 0 yards (F.Oluokun).
  8. 2nd & 4S.McGowan right tackle to IND 31 for 7 yards (J.Hines-Allen).PENALTY on JAX-R.Orhorhoro, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at IND 31.
  9. 1st & 10D.Jones scrambles left end pushed ob at IND 24 for 6 yards (J.Hines-Allen).
  10. Q1 0:00END QUARTER 1
  11. 2nd & 10(Shotgun) D.Jones pass short right to K.Allen ran ob at IND 18 for 12 yards [F.Oluokun].
  12. 1st & 10(Shotgun) S.McGowan right end to IND 6 for no gain (J.Hines-Allen).
Q1 3:25Jaguars 5 plays, 18 yards, 2:14 · from JAX 31Punt
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 01:11.
  2. 4th & 7L.Cooke punts 45 yards to IND 6, Center-R.Matiscik, fair catch by J.Downs.
  3. 3rd & 7(Shotgun) T.Lawrence pass incomplete short middle to T.Hunter (A.Adebawore).
  4. 2nd & 10(Shotgun) C.Rodriguez right tackle to JAX 49 for 3 yards (C.Allen; G.Gumbs).
  5. 1st & 10(No Huddle, Shotgun) T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep right to Bri.Thomas (C.Ward).
  6. 2nd & 9(Shotgun) T.Lawrence pass short middle to J.Meyers to JAX 46 for 14 yards (K.Gushiken).
  7. 1st & 10(Shotgun) C.Rodriguez right guard to JAX 32 for 1 yard (C.Curry).
Q1 5:30Colts 3 plays, 4 yards, 2:05 · from IND 20Punt
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 03:25.
  2. 4th & 6R.Sanchez punts 45 yards to JAX 31, Center-L.Rhodes, fair catch by T.Hunter.
  3. 3rd & 10(Shotgun) D.Jones pass short middle to T.Warren to IND 24 for 4 yards (Jar.Jones; F.Oluokun).
  4. 2nd & 6(No Huddle, Shotgun) D.Jones sacked at IND 20 for -4 yards (T.Walker).
  5. 1st & 10(Shotgun) D.Jones pass short left to K.Allen to IND 24 for 4 yards (T.Hunter).
  6. Q1 5:30C.Little kicks 63 yards from JAX 35 to IND 2. S.McGowan ran ob at IND 40 for 38 yards (Q.Morris).PENALTY on IND-A.Ajiake, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 30.
Q1 12:38Jaguars 12 plays, 98 yards, 7:08 · from JAX 2Touchdown
  1. Q1 5:30Official Timeout at 05:30.
  2. 3rd & Goal(Shotgun) T.Lawrence pass short middle to Bri.Thomas for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Matiscik, Holder-L.Cooke.
  3. 3rd & Goal(Shotgun) PENALTY on JAX-E.Pregnon, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at IND 7 - No Play.
  4. 2nd & Goal(Shotgun) T.Lawrence pass incomplete short middle to J.Meyers.
  5. 1st & GoalB.Tuten up the middle to IND 7 for 1 yard (C.Allen; L.Latu).
  6. 2nd & 1B.Tuten up the middle to IND 8 for 4 yards (A.Gardner).
  7. 1st & 10(Shotgun) B.Tuten left tackle to IND 12 for 9 yards (A.Gardner).
  8. 3rd & 1W.Milum reported in as eligible. T.Lawrence up the middle to IND 21 for 2 yards (T.Smith).
  9. 2nd & 6(Shotgun) T.Hunter left end to IND 23 for 5 yards (C.Allen).
  10. 1st & 10(Shotgun) B.Tuten right tackle to IND 28 for 4 yards (C.Allen; C.Ward).
  11. 2nd & 5W.Milum reported in as eligible. T.Lawrence pass deep right to B.Strange pushed ob at IND 32 for 46 yards (A.Haulcy).
  12. 1st & 10B.Tuten left guard to JAX 22 for 5 yards (J.Tuimoloau; C.Allen).
  13. 2nd & 5P.Washington right end to JAX 17 for 10 yards (C.Allen; J.Tuimoloau).
  14. 1st & 10B.Tuten right guard to JAX 7 for 5 yards (C.Ward; G.Stewart).
Q1 15:00Colts 4 plays, 18 yards, 2:22 · from IND 33Punt
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 12:38.
  2. 4th & 11R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to JAX 2, Center-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-A.Dulin.
  3. 3rd & 4(Shotgun) D.Jones pass short left to J.Taylor to JAX 49 for -7 yards (F.Oluokun).
  4. 2nd & 6(No Huddle, Shotgun) D.Jones scrambles right tackle pushed ob at JAX 42 for 2 yards (V.Miller).
  5. 1st & 10(No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Taylor right guard to JAX 44 for 4 yards (D.Hamilton).
  6. 1st & 10(Shotgun) J.Taylor right end pushed ob at JAX 48 for 19 yards (M.Brown).
  7. Q1 15:00C.Little kicks 55 yards from JAX 35 to IND 10. S.McGowan to IND 33 for 23 yards (D.Gardeck).

Plays via ESPN. The full play-by-play, with EPA and our win probability, lands with the overnight data refresh.

Closing spread

JAX -10

Total

46.5

Model margin

+5.7est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

3.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Jaguars

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapJaguars
  • -0.063EPA / play+0.117
  • 42.5%Success rate46.8%
  • -0.130EPA / dropback+0.227
  • +0.030EPA / rush-0.030
  • 8.3%Explosive rate9.9%
  • -4.20CPOE+3.79
  • 40.1%Third-down rate49.4%
  • 61.0%Red-zone TD rate71.6%
  • 1.93Points / drive2.62
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 27–22 since 1999

JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. JAX are 31-17-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17JAX @ IND23–17JAX
2025 · W14IND @ JAX19–36JAX
2024 · W18JAX @ IND23–26IND
2024 · W5IND @ JAX34–37JAX
2023 · W6IND @ JAX20–37JAX
2023 · W1JAX @ IND31–21JAX
2022 · W6JAX @ IND27–34IND
2022 · W2IND @ JAX0–24JAX

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

3.31%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.1%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.88
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+5.66