Closing spread
IND -2.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+6.1est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.083EPA / play+0.039
- 46.6%Success rate44.5%
- +0.104EPA / dropback+0.110
- +0.052EPA / rush-0.073
- 8.1%Explosive rate8.3%
- +0.62CPOE-1.56
- 43.0%Third-down rate40.9%
- 71.1%Red-zone TD rate66.3%
- 2.74Points / drive2.30
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–22 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. JAX are 31-17-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley Leonard | 18/29 | 145 | 0 | 1 |
| Daniel Jones | 5/7 | 60 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 21 | 74 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Riley Leonard | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Warren | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Pierce | 5 | 8 | 80 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 9 | 12 | 79 | 0 |
| Josh Downs | 4 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Tyler Warren | 2 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Anthony Gould | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 17/30 | 244 | 2 | 0 |
| Nick Mullens | 1/1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 20 | 74 | 3.7 | 2 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Nick Mullens | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 3 | 6 | 87 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 5 | 6 | 78 | 1 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 4 | 10 | 39 | 1 |
| Brenton Strange | 3 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
1.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.2%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.42
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.13