2025 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Daniel Jones

19·36

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

IND -2.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+6.1est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapJaguars
  • +0.083EPA / play+0.039
  • 46.6%Success rate44.5%
  • +0.104EPA / dropback+0.110
  • +0.052EPA / rush-0.073
  • 8.1%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +0.62CPOE-1.56
  • 43.0%Third-down rate40.9%
  • 71.1%Red-zone TD rate66.3%
  • 2.74Points / drive2.30
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 27–22 since 1999

JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. JAX are 31-17-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17JAX @ IND23–17JAX
2024 · W18JAX @ IND23–26IND
2024 · W5IND @ JAX34–37JAX
2023 · W6IND @ JAX20–37JAX
2023 · W1JAX @ IND31–21JAX
2022 · W6JAX @ IND27–34IND
2022 · W2IND @ JAX0–24JAX
2021 · W18IND @ JAX11–26JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–JAX
JAXQ1 15:00414Punt0–0
INDQ1 13:0410Turnover0–0
JAXQ1 12:54426Touchdown0–7
INDQ1 10:391176Touchdown7–7
JAXQ1 4:32574Touchdown7–14
INDQ1 2:27512Punt7–14
JAXQ2 14:4732Punt7–14
INDQ2 13:4729Turnover7–20
JAXQ2 12:59128Touchdown7–21
INDQ2 12:521661Field goal10–21
JAXQ2 4:54425Turnover10–21
INDQ2 2:2943Turnover on downs10–21
JAXQ2 1:451265Touchdown10–28
INDQ2 0:0700End of half10–28
INDQ3 15:00950Field goal13–28
JAXQ3 9:5730Punt13–28
INDQ3 8:5543Punt13–28
JAXQ3 6:461269Field goal13–31
INDQ4 14:05316Turnover13–31
JAXQ4 12:501046Turnover on downs13–33
INDQ4 7:011-9Safety13–33
JAXQ4 6:5732Field goal13–36
INDQ4 4:411265Touchdown19–36
JAXQ4 1:5100End of half19–36

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Riley Leonard18/2914501
Daniel Jones5/76001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor21743.51
Riley Leonard252.51
Ameer Abdullah144.00
Daniel Jones144.00
Tyler Warren122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alec Pierce58800
Michael Pittman912790
Josh Downs45230
Tyler Warren26150
Ameer Abdullah2250
Anthony Gould1130
Mo Alie-Cox0200

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence17/3024420
Nick Mullens1/1300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne20743.72
Trevor Lawrence4164.00
Jakobi Meyers393.00
Bhayshul Tuten252.50
Nick Mullens3-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Thomas Jr.36870
Tim Patrick56781
Jakobi Meyers410391
Brenton Strange36270
Travis Etienne1180
LeQuint Allen Jr.2280

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.3%6.1%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

1.82%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.2%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.42
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.13