2024 · Week 18 · Division

Final / OT

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Mac Jones

23·26

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Joe Flacco

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -3.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+5.2est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapColts
  • -0.023EPA / play-0.045
  • 41.5%Success rate40.6%
  • +0.004EPA / dropback-0.025
  • -0.067EPA / rush-0.071
  • 9.6%Explosive rate10.3%
  • -0.88CPOE-5.38
  • 36.6%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 61.8%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
  • 1.74Points / drive1.87
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 27–22 since 1999

JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. IND are 17-31-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17JAX @ IND23–17JAX
2025 · W14IND @ JAX19–36JAX
2024 · W5IND @ JAX34–37JAX
2023 · W6IND @ JAX20–37JAX
2023 · W1JAX @ IND31–21JAX
2022 · W6JAX @ IND27–34IND
2022 · W2IND @ JAX0–24JAX
2021 · W18IND @ JAX11–26JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–IND
INDQ1 15:00370Touchdown0–7
JAXQ1 13:501065Touchdown7–7
INDQ1 8:12417Punt7–7
JAXQ1 6:1139Punt7–7
INDQ1 4:19521Turnover on downs7–7
JAXQ1 2:17523Field goal10–7
INDQ2 14:17870Touchdown10–14
JAXQ2 9:323-3Punt10–14
INDQ2 8:041043Field goal10–17
JAXQ2 3:22861Field goal13–17
INDQ2 1:25715Field goal13–20
JAXQ2 0:1300End of half13–20
JAXQ3 15:00617Punt13–20
INDQ3 11:5237Punt13–20
JAXQ3 9:41512Turnover13–20
INDQ3 7:581056Missed field goal13–20
JAXQ3 2:4230Punt13–20
INDQ3 2:20616Punt13–20
JAXQ4 14:451494Touchdown20–20
INDQ4 7:50648Field goal20–23
JAXQ4 3:52635Field goal23–23
INDQ4 1:44616Punt23–23
JAXQ4 0:1500End of half23–23
INDOT1050Field goal23–26
JAXOT48Turnover on downs23–26

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones20/3222511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tank Bigsby14392.81
Travis Etienne13312.40
D'Ernest Johnson22613.00
Mac Jones5173.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Thomas Jr.7111030
Brenton Strange44600
Travis Etienne35290
Parker Washington24151
Josh Reynolds13110
Luke Farrell1140
Tank Bigsby1130
D'Ernest Johnson1200

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco23/4026410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor341775.21

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Downs1013940
Michael Pittman610720
Alec Pierce22571
Andrew Ogletree11210
Kylen Granson1470
Trey Sermon1350
Tyler Goodson1250
Jonathan Taylor1230
Mo Alie-Cox0100
Adonai Mitchell0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.5%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.9%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.75
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.74
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.20