Closing spread
IND -3.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+5.2est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play-0.045
- 41.5%Success rate40.6%
- +0.004EPA / dropback-0.025
- -0.067EPA / rush-0.071
- 9.6%Explosive rate10.3%
- -0.88CPOE-5.38
- 36.6%Third-down rate37.8%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
- 1.74Points / drive1.87
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–22 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. IND are 17-31-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 20/32 | 225 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tank Bigsby | 14 | 39 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Travis Etienne | 13 | 31 | 2.4 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 2 | 26 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 7 | 11 | 103 | 0 |
| Brenton Strange | 4 | 4 | 60 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Parker Washington | 2 | 4 | 15 | 1 |
| Josh Reynolds | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Luke Farrell | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 23/40 | 264 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 34 | 177 | 5.2 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Downs | 10 | 13 | 94 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 6 | 10 | 72 | 0 |
| Alec Pierce | 2 | 2 | 57 | 1 |
| Andrew Ogletree | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Trey Sermon | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Tyler Goodson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.9%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.75
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+2.74
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.20