Closing spread
JAX -3.5
Total
45
Model margin
-1.9est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.045EPA / play-0.023
- 40.6%Success rate41.5%
- -0.025EPA / dropback+0.004
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.067
- 10.3%Explosive rate9.6%
- -5.38CPOE-0.88
- 37.8%Third-down rate36.6%
- 53.0%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 1.87Points / drive1.74
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–22 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. JAX are 31-17-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 33/44 | 359 | 3 | 0 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 1/1 | 24 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Sermon | 10 | 38 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Tyler Goodson | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Pierce | 3 | 3 | 134 | 1 |
| Josh Downs | 9 | 12 | 69 | 0 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 4 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 2 | 4 | 37 | 1 |
| Michael Pittman | 5 | 8 | 37 | 1 |
| Tyler Goodson | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Trey Sermon | 6 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Will Mallory | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Andrew Ogletree | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 28/34 | 371 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tank Bigsby | 13 | 101 | 7.8 | 2 |
| Travis Etienne | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 5 | 8 | 122 | 1 |
| Christian Kirk | 4 | 4 | 88 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 6 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 3 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| Brenton Strange | 4 | 4 | 24 | 1 |
| Luke Farrell | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Josiah Deguara | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.1%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.75
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.81
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.85