Closing spread
JAX -3.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
-6.6est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.039EPA / play+0.083
- 44.5%Success rate46.6%
- +0.110EPA / dropback+0.104
- -0.073EPA / rush+0.052
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.1%
- -1.56CPOE+0.62
- 40.9%Third-down rate43.0%
- 66.3%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
- 2.30Points / drive2.74
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–22 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. IND are 17-31-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 23/37 | 263 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 17 | 76 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 2 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Parker Washington | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Washington | 8 | 10 | 115 | 0 |
| Brenton Strange | 3 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 6 | 9 | 39 | 0 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 4 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 17/30 | 147 | 1 | 1 |
| Riley Leonard | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 21 | 70 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Philip Rivers | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Warren | 5 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Josh Downs | 2 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 3 | 3 | 20 | 1 |
| Michael Pittman | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Will Mallory | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 3 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Alec Pierce | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
32.0%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.42
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-3.78
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-6.57