2025 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

23·17

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Philip Rivers

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

JAX -3.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

-6.6est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapColts
  • +0.039EPA / play+0.083
  • 44.5%Success rate46.6%
  • +0.110EPA / dropback+0.104
  • -0.073EPA / rush+0.052
  • 8.3%Explosive rate8.1%
  • -1.56CPOE+0.62
  • 40.9%Third-down rate43.0%
  • 66.3%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
  • 2.30Points / drive2.74
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 27–22 since 1999

JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. IND are 17-31-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14IND @ JAX19–36JAX
2024 · W18JAX @ IND23–26IND
2024 · W5IND @ JAX34–37JAX
2023 · W6IND @ JAX20–37JAX
2023 · W1JAX @ IND31–21JAX
2022 · W6JAX @ IND27–34IND
2022 · W2IND @ JAX0–24JAX
2021 · W18IND @ JAX11–26JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–IND
INDQ1 15:00729Field goal0–3
JAXQ1 11:14865Turnover0–3
INDQ1 6:061678Touchdown0–10
JAXQ2 12:491269Touchdown7–10
INDQ2 5:38421Punt7–10
JAXQ2 3:484-3Punt7–10
INDQ2 1:5033Punt7–10
JAXQ2 0:52544Turnover7–10
INDQ2 0:1500End of half7–10
JAXQ3 15:003-2Punt7–10
INDQ3 13:10517Punt7–10
JAXQ3 10:08881Touchdown14–10
INDQ3 7:26723Touchdown14–17
JAXQ3 5:58951Field goal17–17
INDQ3 1:2532Punt17–17
JAXQ4 14:01946Turnover on downs17–17
INDQ4 9:2536Turnover17–17
JAXQ4 7:543-3Field goal20–17
INDQ4 6:58614Turnover on downs20–17
JAXQ4 3:06822Field goal23–17
INDQ4 0:18312Turnover23–17

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence23/3726301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne17764.50
Trevor Lawrence8263.32
DeeJay Dallas22110.50
LeQuint Allen Jr.133.00
Parker Washington1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Parker Washington8101150
Brenton Strange35540
Jakobi Meyers69390
Brian Thomas Jr.47390
Travis Etienne23160
Johnny Mundt0100
Tim Patrick0100
DeeJay Dallas0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers17/3014711
Riley Leonard0/1001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor21703.31
Philip Rivers1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Warren55430
Josh Downs25340
Mo Alie-Cox33201
Michael Pittman23160
Will Mallory11160
Jonathan Taylor36140
Ameer Abdullah1140
Alec Pierce0500

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.53.2%3.4%5.0%3.2%7.3%6.0%3.2%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

7.30%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

32.0%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.42
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.78
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-6.57