2023 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Gardner Minshew

20·37

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

JAX -4

Total

44

Model margin

+2.0est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapJaguars
  • -0.025EPA / play-0.032
  • 41.5%Success rate43.1%
  • +0.030EPA / dropback+0.053
  • -0.108EPA / rush-0.192
  • 8.6%Explosive rate7.1%
  • -3.92CPOE+1.62
  • 34.4%Third-down rate38.5%
  • 57.1%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
  • 1.78Points / drive1.84
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 27–22 since 1999

JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. JAX are 31-17-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17JAX @ IND23–17JAX
2025 · W14IND @ JAX19–36JAX
2024 · W18JAX @ IND23–26IND
2024 · W5IND @ JAX34–37JAX
2023 · W1JAX @ IND31–21JAX
2022 · W6JAX @ IND27–34IND
2022 · W2IND @ JAX0–24JAX
2021 · W18IND @ JAX11–26JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–JAX
INDQ1 15:001565Field goal3–0
JAXQ1 6:271365Touchdown3–7
INDQ2 14:171-6Turnover3–13
JAXQ2 14:10122Touchdown3–14
INDQ2 14:0143Punt3–14
JAXQ2 12:57525Punt3–14
INDQ2 10:42417Punt3–14
JAXQ2 8:083-4Punt3–14
INDQ2 6:44545Turnover3–14
JAXQ2 4:39965Touchdown3–21
INDQ2 1:40837Field goal6–21
JAXQ2 0:0600End of half6–21
JAXQ3 15:0030Punt6–21
INDQ3 14:33413Turnover6–21
JAXQ3 12:31314Field goal6–24
INDQ3 10:443-2Punt6–24
JAXQ3 8:331151Touchdown6–31
INDQ3 3:511275Touchdown13–31
JAXQ4 14:1436Turnover13–31
INDQ4 13:24720Turnover13–31
JAXQ4 11:063-5Punt13–31
INDQ4 8:42472Touchdown20–31
JAXQ4 7:1436Field goal20–34
INDQ4 4:504-7Turnover on downs20–34
JAXQ4 3:193-9Field goal20–37
INDQ4 3:00722Turnover on downs20–37
JAXQ4 1:4500End of half20–37

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gardner Minshew33/5532913

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zack Moss7213.01
Jonathan Taylor8192.40
Gardner Minshew242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Pittman9141090
Kylen Granson34670
Jonathan Taylor56460
Zack Moss67380
Alec Pierce36250
Isaiah McKenzie22230
Josh Downs58211
Trey Sermon0100
Amari Rodgers0200
Andrew Ogletree0100
Will Mallory0100

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence20/3018121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne18553.12
D'Ernest Johnson11919.00
Trevor Lawrence3155.00
Tank Bigsby320.70
C.J. Beathard3-2-0.70
Calvin Ridley1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Kirk36491
Evan Engram77410
Calvin Ridley48300
Travis Etienne33280
Brenton Strange23271
Tank Bigsby1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +44.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.53%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.5%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.33
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.04