Closing spread
JAX -4
Total
44
Model margin
+2.0est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.025EPA / play-0.032
- 41.5%Success rate43.1%
- +0.030EPA / dropback+0.053
- -0.108EPA / rush-0.192
- 8.6%Explosive rate7.1%
- -3.92CPOE+1.62
- 34.4%Third-down rate38.5%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
- 1.78Points / drive1.84
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–22 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. JAX are 31-17-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 33/55 | 329 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Moss | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 8 | 19 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 9 | 14 | 109 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 3 | 4 | 67 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 5 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 6 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Alec Pierce | 3 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Josh Downs | 5 | 8 | 21 | 1 |
| Trey Sermon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Amari Rodgers | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Ogletree | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Will Mallory | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 20/30 | 181 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 18 | 55 | 3.1 | 2 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| C.J. Beathard | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 3 | 6 | 49 | 1 |
| Evan Engram | 7 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 4 | 8 | 30 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Brenton Strange | 2 | 3 | 27 | 1 |
| Tank Bigsby | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.5%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.33
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.04