Closing spread
IND -1
Total
41
Model margin
-1.4est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.045EPA / play-0.154
- 46.6%Success rate40.3%
- +0.137EPA / dropback-0.139
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.181
- 9.3%Explosive rate7.4%
- +1.07CPOE-1.42
- 42.0%Third-down rate33.3%
- 59.3%Red-zone TD rate45.5%
- 2.07Points / drive1.33
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–22 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. IND are 17-31-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 20/22 | 165 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 10 | 86 | 8.6 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 3 | 57 | 19.0 | 1 |
| James Robinson | 12 | 54 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 2 |
| Jamal Agnew | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Jones | 5 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 5 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 4 | 5 | 24 | 1 |
| Travis Etienne | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Tim Jones | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Luke Farrell | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| James Robinson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 42/58 | 389 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deon Jackson | 12 | 42 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 13 | 16 | 134 | 0 |
| Deon Jackson | 10 | 10 | 79 | 0 |
| Parris Campbell | 7 | 11 | 57 | 1 |
| Alec Pierce | 3 | 7 | 49 | 1 |
| Kylen Granson | 4 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Jelani Woods | 2 | 3 | 27 | 1 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Mike Strachan | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.4%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.30
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-1.35