2022 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

27·34

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Matt Ryan

Lucas Oil Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -1

Total

41

Model margin

-1.4est.

IND perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapColts
  • +0.045EPA / play-0.154
  • 46.6%Success rate40.3%
  • +0.137EPA / dropback-0.139
  • -0.100EPA / rush-0.181
  • 9.3%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +1.07CPOE-1.42
  • 42.0%Third-down rate33.3%
  • 59.3%Red-zone TD rate45.5%
  • 2.07Points / drive1.33
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 27–22 since 1999

JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. IND are 17-31-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17JAX @ IND23–17JAX
2025 · W14IND @ JAX19–36JAX
2024 · W18JAX @ IND23–26IND
2024 · W5IND @ JAX34–37JAX
2023 · W6IND @ JAX20–37JAX
2023 · W1JAX @ IND31–21JAX
2022 · W2IND @ JAX0–24JAX
2021 · W18IND @ JAX11–26JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–IND
INDQ1 15:00848Punt0–0
JAXQ1 12:11645Punt0–0
INDQ1 9:0439Punt0–0
JAXQ1 7:18656Touchdown7–0
INDQ1 3:481267Field goal7–3
JAXQ2 13:56570Touchdown14–3
INDQ2 11:27641Punt14–3
JAXQ2 8:4330Punt14–3
INDQ2 6:341055Touchdown14–10
JAXQ2 2:063-4Punt14–10
INDQ2 1:31837Field goal14–13
JAXQ2 0:2100End of half14–13
JAXQ3 15:00875Touchdown21–13
INDQ3 10:551160Touchdown21–19
JAXQ3 5:44947Turnover on downs21–19
INDQ3 1:091051Touchdown21–26
JAXQ4 12:471972Touchdown27–26
INDQ4 2:441166Touchdown27–34
JAXQ4 0:17219Turnover27–34

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence20/2216510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne10868.60
JaMycal Hasty35719.01
James Robinson12544.50
Trevor Lawrence6233.82
Jamal Agnew11919.00
Christian Kirk144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zay Jones55420
Evan Engram56400
Christian Kirk45241
Travis Etienne22220
Tim Jones11200
Luke Farrell11110
Jamal Agnew1150
James Robinson1110

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan42/5838930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Deon Jackson12423.51
Phillip Lindsay372.30
Matt Ryan1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Pittman13161340
Deon Jackson1010790
Parris Campbell711571
Alec Pierce37491
Kylen Granson44380
Jelani Woods23271
Phillip Lindsay3350
Mike Strachan0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.4%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.30
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin-1.35