Closing spread
KC -1.5
Total
53
Model margin
+1.3est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.5 points. OAK are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 13:56 | 8 | 17 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 9:30 | 8 | 19 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| KC | Q1 5:15 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 2:56 | 6 | 49 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| KC | Q2 14:57 | 4 | 70 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| LV | Q2 13:15 | 11 | 74 | Field goal | 14–10 |
| KC | Q2 8:30 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–10 |
| LV | Q2 6:48 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 14–10 |
| KC | Q2 5:29 | 7 | 24 | Field goal | 17–10 |
| LV | Q2 2:26 | 7 | 23 | Punt | 17–10 |
| KC | Q2 0:22 | 1 | 6 | End of half | 17–10 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 30 | Missed field goal | 17–10 |
| KC | Q3 12:29 | 5 | 32 | Missed field goal | 17–16 |
| LV | Q3 9:29 | 1 | 64 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| KC | Q3 9:18 | 16 | 88 | Field goal | 20–17 |
| LV | Q4 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 20–17 |
| KC | Q4 13:25 | 10 | 54 | Field goal | 23–17 |
| LV | Q4 8:46 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 23–17 |
| KC | Q4 6:05 | 3 | 26 | Turnover | 23–17 |
| LV | Q4 4:52 | 9 | 41 | Turnover on downs | 23–17 |
| KC | Q4 1:46 | 3 | 18 | End of half | 23–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 18/28 | 237 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 19 | 75 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Larry Johnson | 9 | 41 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Eddie Kennison | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Kris Wilson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Dante Hall | 2 | -7 | -3.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.49
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+1.31
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.