Closing spread
NYJ -6
Total
37
Model margin
+3.1est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.040EPA / play-0.124
- 40.9%Success rate40.1%
- -0.007EPA / dropback-0.093
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.171
- 8.0%Explosive rate5.7%
- 35.3%Third-down rate35.3%
- 48.9%Red-zone TD rate39.0%
- 1.48Points / drive1.30
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.029EPA / play allowed+0.002
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 29–26 since 1999
MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. NYJ are 28-24-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–NYJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 69 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| MIA | Q1 9:32 | 11 | 58 | Missed field goal | 0–7 |
| NYJ | Q1 3:54 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 0–7 |
| MIA | Q1 2:12 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NYJ | Q1 1:14 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 0–7 |
| MIA | Q2 14:46 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NYJ | Q2 13:45 | 16 | 63 | Turnover on downs | 0–7 |
| MIA | Q2 4:55 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NYJ | Q2 3:23 | 6 | 20 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| MIA | Q2 1:02 | 3 | 15 | End of half | 0–10 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 17 | Punt | 0–10 |
| NYJ | Q3 12:13 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 0–10 |
| MIA | Q3 10:18 | 6 | 31 | Punt | 0–10 |
| NYJ | Q3 7:38 | 6 | 32 | Punt | 0–10 |
| MIA | Q3 4:36 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–10 |
| NYJ | Q3 3:11 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–10 |
| MIA | Q3 2:42 | 7 | 41 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| NYJ | Q4 14:13 | 11 | 83 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| MIA | Q4 8:19 | 9 | 28 | Punt | 7–17 |
| NYJ | Q4 4:42 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 7–17 |
| MIA | Q4 4:11 | 8 | 29 | Turnover | 7–17 |
| NYJ | Q4 2:44 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–17 |
| MIA | Q4 0:25 | 2 | -2 | End of half | 7–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 20/43 | 177 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 12 | 35 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 19/30 | 190 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 31 | 72 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Derrick Blaylock | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
3.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.02
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.57
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.11