Closing spread
NYJ -6
Total
37
Model margin
+3.1est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.040EPA / play-0.124
- 40.9%Success rate40.1%
- -0.007EPA / dropback-0.093
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.171
- 8.0%Explosive rate5.7%
- 35.3%Third-down rate35.3%
- 48.9%Red-zone TD rate39.0%
- 1.48Points / drive1.30
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.029EPA / play allowed+0.002
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 28–26 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. NYJ are 28-23-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 20/43 | 177 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 12 | 35 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 19/30 | 190 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 31 | 72 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Derrick Blaylock | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
3.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.02
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.57
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.11