Closing spread
NYG -3
Total
43
Model margin
+0.1est.
NO perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.041EPA / play-0.096
- 42.4%Success rate41.1%
- +0.087EPA / dropback-0.030
- -0.026EPA / rush-0.205
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.1%
- 39.9%Third-down rate38.7%
- 57.6%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
- 1.87Points / drive1.11
- 2.1%Turnover rate3.5%
- -0.047EPA / play allowed+0.032
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 10–6 since 1999
NO have won 4 straight. Meetings average 50.4 points. NO are 9-6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYG–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 14:53 | 3 | 10 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| NO | Q1 13:25 | 6 | 34 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NYG | Q1 10:08 | 12 | 86 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| NO | Q1 4:13 | 8 | 76 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| NYG | Q2 14:11 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 14–7 |
| NO | Q2 10:59 | 8 | 23 | Punt | 14–7 |
| NYG | Q2 6:38 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 14–7 |
| NO | Q2 5:30 | 4 | 19 | Turnover | 14–7 |
| NYG | Q2 3:27 | 5 | 36 | Touchdown | 21–7 |
| NO | Q2 1:54 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 21–7 |
| NO | Q2 1:15 | 5 | 24 | Field goal | 21–10 |
| NYG | Q2 0:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–10 |
| NYG | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 21–10 |
| NO | Q3 13:52 | 6 | 29 | Turnover | 21–10 |
| NYG | Q3 10:24 | 5 | 15 | Field goal | 24–10 |
| NO | Q3 7:48 | 6 | 55 | Turnover | 24–10 |
| NYG | Q3 4:51 | 5 | 3 | Punt | 24–10 |
| NO | Q3 2:53 | 9 | 68 | Missed field goal | 24–10 |
| NYG | Q4 13:24 | 14 | 74 | Field goal | 27–10 |
| NO | Q4 6:37 | 9 | 69 | Turnover | 27–10 |
| NYG | Q4 3:40 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 27–10 |
| NO | Q4 1:43 | 7 | 26 | Turnover | 27–10 |
| NYG | Q4 0:21 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 27–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 13/24 | 165 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 22 | 83 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Willie Ponder | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 27/45 | 375 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 15 | 47 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
7.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.4%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.42
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.14