Closing spread
NYG -3
Total
43
Model margin
+0.1est.
NO perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.041EPA / play-0.096
- 42.4%Success rate41.1%
- +0.087EPA / dropback-0.030
- -0.026EPA / rush-0.205
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.1%
- 39.9%Third-down rate38.7%
- 57.6%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
- 1.87Points / drive1.11
- 2.1%Turnover rate3.5%
- -0.047EPA / play allowed+0.032
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 9–6 since 1999
NO have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.7 points. NO are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 13/24 | 165 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 22 | 83 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Willie Ponder | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 27/45 | 375 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 15 | 47 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
7.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.4%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.42
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.14