Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
44
Model margin
+4.7est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 33–23 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-25-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 13 | 81 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 8:07 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 6:06 | 6 | 28 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 2:58 | 12 | 85 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| DEN | Q2 12:13 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LAC | Q2 9:35 | 10 | 78 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| DEN | Q2 4:55 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 14–3 |
| LAC | Q2 1:46 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 14–3 |
| DEN | Q2 1:20 | 4 | 14 | End of half | 14–3 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 14–10 |
| LAC | Q3 14:49 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 14–10 |
| DEN | Q3 12:23 | 3 | 2 | Missed field goal | 14–10 |
| LAC | Q3 11:30 | 3 | -8 | Turnover | 14–10 |
| DEN | Q3 10:37 | 4 | 15 | Turnover | 14–10 |
| LAC | Q3 9:22 | 5 | 3 | Punt | 14–10 |
| DEN | Q3 6:02 | 8 | 54 | Missed field goal | 14–10 |
| LAC | Q3 0:49 | 4 | -1 | Punt | 14–10 |
| DEN | Q4 14:08 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 14–10 |
| LAC | Q4 11:43 | 3 | -10 | Punt | 14–10 |
| DEN | Q4 9:41 | 2 | 29 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| LAC | Q4 8:46 | 7 | 49 | Field goal | 17–17 |
| DEN | Q4 5:21 | 13 | 48 | Field goal | 17–20 |
| LAC | Q4 0:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 23/37 | 248 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Anderson | 15 | 49 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 8 | 44 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Kyle Johnson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Jake Plummer | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.7%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.18
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.74
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.