Closing spread
STL -1
Total
44
Model margin
+3.1est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 29–21 since 1999
Meetings average 42.8 points. ARI are 24-25-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q1 11:42 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 10:04 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q1 8:57 | 9 | 57 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| LA | Q1 5:38 | 7 | 24 | Punt | 7–3 |
| ARI | Q1 1:20 | 2 | -2 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| LA | Q1 0:36 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| ARI | Q1 0:28 | 4 | 13 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| LA | Q2 13:30 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–3 |
| ARI | Q2 12:43 | 7 | 40 | Field goal | 7–6 |
| LA | Q2 8:44 | 9 | 69 | Field goal | 10–6 |
| ARI | Q2 3:42 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 10–6 |
| LA | Q2 1:29 | 3 | 3 | End of half | 10–6 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 45 | Field goal | 10–9 |
| LA | Q3 10:23 | 8 | 86 | Touchdown | 17–9 |
| ARI | Q3 5:45 | 7 | 37 | Punt | 17–9 |
| LA | Q3 2:46 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 17–9 |
| ARI | Q3 0:44 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 17–9 |
| LA | Q4 14:51 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 17–9 |
| ARI | Q4 12:47 | 11 | 81 | Field goal | 17–12 |
| LA | Q4 6:59 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 17–12 |
| ARI | Q4 4:10 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 17–12 |
| LA | Q4 3:02 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 17–12 |
| ARI | Q4 1:53 | 7 | 71 | End of half | 17–12 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 29/42 | 327 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel Shipp | 12 | 54 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 |
| James Jackson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.56
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.12
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.