2005 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Mark Brunell

14·13

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Drew Bledsoe

Texas Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 93°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

DAL -6

Total

36

Model margin

+0.1est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

2.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapCowboys
  • +0.014EPA / play-0.023
  • 41.3%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.100EPA / dropback+0.082
  • -0.083EPA / rush-0.143
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.7%
  • 43.1%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 58.5%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
  • 1.80Points / drive1.55
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.7%
  • -0.058EPA / play allowed-0.049

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 38–16 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. DAL are 31-23 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17DAL @ WAS30–23DAL
2025 · W7WAS @ DAL22–44DAL
2024 · W18WAS @ DAL23–19WAS
2024 · W12DAL @ WAS34–26DAL
2023 · W18DAL @ WAS38–10DAL
2023 · W12WAS @ DAL10–45DAL
2022 · W18DAL @ WAS6–26WAS
2022 · W4WAS @ DAL10–25DAL

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Brunell20/3429121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clinton Portis17523.10
Mark Brunell4358.80
Ladell Betts4174.30

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Bledsoe21/3626110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Julius Jones22813.70
Drew Bledsoe252.50
Tyson Thompson341.30
Anthony Thomas200.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.4%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.43
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.13