2005 · Week 2 · Division
Final
Texas Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 93°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
DAL -6
Total
36
Model margin
+0.1est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.014EPA / play-0.023
- 41.3%Success rate40.5%
- +0.100EPA / dropback+0.082
- -0.083EPA / rush-0.143
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.7%
- 43.1%Third-down rate41.9%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 1.80Points / drive1.55
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.058EPA / play allowed-0.049
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 39–16 since 1999
DAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. DAL are 32-23 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | WAS–DAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 42 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 8:55 | 9 | 30 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 4:25 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 0:48 | 2 | -1 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q2 15:00 | 6 | 21 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| WAS | Q2 11:20 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–3 |
| DAL | Q2 9:31 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–3 |
| WAS | Q2 7:09 | 9 | 17 | Punt | 0–3 |
| DAL | Q2 2:42 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–3 |
| WAS | Q2 1:44 | 7 | 32 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| DAL | Q2 0:06 | 2 | 5 | End of half | 0–3 |
| WAS | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–3 |
| DAL | Q3 13:26 | 2 | 70 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| WAS | Q3 12:51 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–10 |
| DAL | Q3 11:24 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 0–10 |
| WAS | Q3 8:59 | 9 | 50 | Punt | 0–10 |
| DAL | Q3 5:11 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 0–10 |
| WAS | Q3 1:37 | 8 | 33 | Punt | 0–10 |
| DAL | Q4 12:25 | 10 | 68 | Field goal | 0–13 |
| WAS | Q4 5:58 | 10 | 81 | Touchdown | 7–13 |
| DAL | Q4 3:46 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 7–13 |
| WAS | Q4 2:52 | 2 | 80 | Touchdown | 14–13 |
| DAL | Q4 2:35 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 14–13 |
| WAS | Q4 1:47 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–13 |
| DAL | Q4 0:36 | 5 | 36 | End of half | 14–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 20/34 | 291 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 17 | 52 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 4 | 35 | 8.8 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 21/36 | 261 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 22 | 81 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Tyson Thompson | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.4%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.43
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.13